Monday, February 04, 2019

PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES (91st)

BEST PICTURE

ROMA

DIRECTING

ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

RAMI MALEK (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

GLENN CLOSE (THE WIFE)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

MAHERSHALA ALI (GREEN BOOK)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

AMY ADAMS (VICE)

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

CHARLIE WACHTEL, DAVID RABINOWITZ, KEVIN WILLMOTT, SPIKE LEE, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BLACKKKLANSMAN)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

ROMA (MEXICO)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)

COSTUME DESIGN

RUTH E. CARTER (BLACK PANTHER)

FILM EDITING

BARRY ALEXANDER BROWN (BLACKKKLANSMAN)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

GREG CANNOM, KATE BISCOE, PATRICIA DEHANEY (VICE)

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

LUDWIG GÖRANSSON (BLACK PANTHER)

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

"SHALLOW" (A STAR IS BORN)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

FIONA CROMBIE, ALICE FELTON (THE FAVOURITE)

SOUND EDITING

BENJAMIN A. BURTT, STEVE BOEDDEKER (BLACK PANTHER)

SOUND MIXING

PAUL MASSEY, TIM CAVAGIN, JOHN CASALI (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY)

VISUAL EFFECTS

DAN DELEEUW, KELLY PORT, RUSSELL EARL, DAN SUDICK (AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR)

TECHNICAL CATEGORIES (91st)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Lukasz Zal (Cold War)
Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
Caleb Deschanel (Never Look Away)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Matthew Libatique (A Star is Born)

PREDICTION SCORE: 4/5 (Roma, Cold War, A Star is Born, The Favourite)
WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: Cold War
MIGHT UPSET: Cold War
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Linus Sandgren (First Man), Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Suspiria)

COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)
Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)

PREDICTION SCORE: 4/5 (The Favourite, Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns)
WILL WIN: Black Panther
SHOULD WIN: Black Panther
MIGHT UPSET: The Favourite
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Mary E. Vogt (Crazy Rich Asians), Sarah Edwards (Ocean's Eight

FILM EDITING
Barry Alexander Brown (BlacKkKlansman)
John Ottman (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)
Patrick J. Don Vito (Green Book)
Hank Corwin (Vice)

PREDICTION SCORE: 1/5 (Vice)
WILL WIN: BlacKkKlansman
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MIGHT UPSET: Bohemian Rhapsody

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Tom Cross (First Man), Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), Jaroslaw Kaminski (Cold War)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer (Border)
Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks (Mary Queen of Scots)
Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney (Vice)

PREDICTION SCORE: 1/3 (Vice)
WILL WIN: Vice
MIGHT UPSET: Border

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Suspiria, Black Panther

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Terence Blanchard (BlacKkKlansman)
Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)

PREDICTION SCORE: 4/5 (Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs)
WILL WIN: Black Panther
SHOULD WIN: Isle of Dogs
MIGHT UPSET: BlacKkKlansman


SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Justin Hurwitz (First Man), Thom Yorke (Suspiria)

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
"I'll Fight" (RBG)
"Shallow" (A Star is Born)

PREDICTION SCORE: 3/5 ("Shallow," "The Place Where Lost Things Go," "All the Stars")
WILL WIN: "Shallow"
SHOULD WIN: "Shallow"
MIGHT UPSET: "All the Stars"



SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "We Won't Move" (The Hate U Give), "Ashes" (Deadpool 2), Trip a Light Fantastic (Mary Poppins Returns), Requiem for a Private War (A Private War)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (First Man)
John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez (Roma)

PREDICTION SCORE: 4/5 (The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Black Panther, First Man)
WILL WIN: The Favourite
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MIGHT UPSET: Black Panther




SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria), Nelson Coates, Andrew Baseman (Crazy Rich Asians)

SOUND EDITING
Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker (Black Panther)
John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan (First Man)
Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl (A Quiet Place)
Sergio Díaz, Skip Lievsay (Roma)

PREDICTION SCORE: 3/5 (First Man, Black Panther, A Quiet Place)
WILL WIN: Black Panther
SHOULD WIN: First Man
MIGHT UPSET: Bohemian Rhapsody

SOUND MIXING
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin (Black Panther)
Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis (First Man)
Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García (Roma)
Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow (A Star is Born)

PREDICTION SCORE: 3/5 (A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man)
WILL WIN: Bohemian Rhapsody
SHOULD WIN: Bohemian Rhapsody
MIGHT UPSET: A Star is Born

VISUAL EFFECTS
Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick (Avengers: Infinity War)
Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould (Christopher Robin)
Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm (First Man)
Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk (Ready Player One)
Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy (Solo: A Star Wars Story)

PREDICTION SCORE: 3/5 (Avengers: Infinity WarFirst Man, Ready Player One)
WILL WIN: Avengers: Infinity War
SHOULD WIN: Avengers: Infinity War
MIGHT UPSET: Ready Player One





SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Bumblebee, Aquaman

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (91st)

CAPERNAUM (LEBANON)

Director: Nadine Labaki
Writers: Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki, Khaled Mouzanar
Producers: Michel Merkt, Khaled Mouzanar
Cast: Ghida Majzoub, Kawthar Al Haddad, Boluwatife Treasure Bankole

Plot (IMDb): A politically-charged fable, featuring mostly non-professional actors, about a child who launches a lawsuit against his parents.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Jury Prize, Cannes Film Festival
Win, Prize of the Ecumenical Jury, Cannes Film Festival 
Nomination, Palme d'Or, Cannes Film Festival
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Foreign Language, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Foreign Language Film, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Foreign Language Film, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

Nomination, Best Film Not in the English Language, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

COLD WAR (POLAND)

Director: Pawel Pawlikowski
Writers: Pawel Pawlikowski, Janusz Glowacki
Producers: Ewa Puszczynska, Tanya Seghatchian
Cast: Joanna Kulig, Tomasz Kot, Borys Szyc

Plot (IMDb): A passionate love story between two people of different backgrounds and temperaments, who are fatefully mismatched, set against the background of the Cold War in the 1950s in Poland, Berlin, Yugoslavia and Paris.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Cannes Film Festival
Nomination, Palme d'Or, Cannes Film Festival
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, National Board of Review
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, New York Film Critics Circle
Runner-up, Best Foreign-Language Film, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Foreign Language, New York Film Critics Online
Nomination, Best Foreign Language Film, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Runner-up, Best Foreign Language Film, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Runner-up, Best Foreign Language Film, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Nomination, Best Film Not in the English Language, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)


NEVER LOOK AWAY (GERMANY)

Director: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
Writer: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
Producers: Quirin Berg, Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, Jan Mojto, Christiane Henckel von Donnersmarck, Max Wiedemann
Cast: Tom Schilling, Sebastian Koch, Paula Beer, Saskia Rosendahl, Oliver Masucci

Plot (IMDb): German artist Kurt Barnert has escaped East Germany and now lives in West Germany, but is tormented by his childhood under the Nazis and the GDR-regime.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Golden Lion, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Foreign Language, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)

ROMA (MEXICO)

Director: Alfonso Cuarón
Writer: Alfonso Cuarón
Producers: Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
Cast: Yalitza Aparicio, Marina de Tavira

Plot (IMDb): A story that chronicles a year in the life of a middle-class family in Mexico City in the early 1970s.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Golden Lion, Best Film, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Nomination, Best International Film, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Motion Picture-Foreign Language, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Foreign Film, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Foreign Film, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Foreign Language Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Foreign Film, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Non-English Language Feature, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Seattle Film Critics Society
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Phoenix Critics Circle
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, National Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Best Film Not in the English Language, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

SHOPLIFTERS (JAPAN)

Director: Hirokazu Koreeda
Writer: Hirokazu Koreeda
Producers: Kaori Matsuzaki, Hijiri Taguchi, Akihiko Yose
Cast: Kirin Kiki, Lily Franky, Sakura Andô

Plot (IMDb): A family of small-time crooks take in a child they find on the street.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Palme d'Or, Cannes Film Festival
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Top Foreign Film, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best International Film, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Foreign Language, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Foreign-Language Film, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Foreign Language Film, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Foreign-Language Film, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Foreign Language Film, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Film Not in the English Language, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

PREDICTION SCORES:
October Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, Shoplifters, Cold War, Capernaum)
November Predictions - 4/5 (RomaShopliftersCold WarCapernaum)
December Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum)
Final Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum)

WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: Roma
MIGHT UPSET: Cold War
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Burning (South Korea)