Sunday, February 26, 2017

2016 Film-Otaku Awards: Horror Edition

Here are my choices for this year's best in horror:

BEST HORROR FILM
The Witch
The Love Witch
Train to Busan
The Conjuring 2
Under the Shadow
Don't Breathe
The Wailing
10 Cloverfield Lane
Evolution
Seklusyon

BEST HORROR FILM DIRECTOR
David Eggers (The Witch)
Anna Biller (The Love Witch)
Yeon Sang-ho (Train to Busan)
Fede Álvarez (Don't Breathe)
Babak Anvari (Under the Shadow)

BEST HORROR FILM ACTRESS
Vera Farmiga (The Conjuring 2)
Blake Lively (The Shallows)
Anna Taylor-Joy (The Witch)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (10 Cloverfield Lane)
Rhed Bustamante (Seklusyon)

BEST HORROR FILM ACTOR
Do-won Kwak (The Wailing)
John Goodman (10 Cloverfield Lane)
Ralph Ineson (The Witch)
Stephen Lang (Don't Breathe)
Yoo Gong (Train to Busan)

BEST HORROR FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kate Dickie (The Witch)
Maria Bello (Lights Out)
Laura Waddell (The Love Witch)
Roxan Duran (Evolution)
Jung Yu-mi (Train to Busan)

BEST HORROR FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
Harvey Scrimshaw (The Witch)
Jun Kunimura (The Wailing)
Ma Dong-seok (Train to Busan)
Jung-min Hwang (The Wailing)
Neil Ryan Sese (Seklusyon)

BEST HORROR FILM SCREENPLAY
Robert Eggers (The Witch)
Anna Biller (The Love Witch)
Babak Anvari (Under the Shadow)
Josh Campbell, Matthew Stuecken, Damien Chazelle (10 Cloverfield Lane)
Anton C. Santamaria (Seklusyon)

BEST HORROR FILM CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jarin Blaschke (The Witch)
Flavio Martínez Labiano (The Shallows)
M. David Mullen (The Love Witch)
Manuel Dacosse (Evolution)
Neil Bion (Seklusyon)

BEST HORROR FILM SCORE
Anna Biller (The Love Witch)
Mark Korven (The Witch)
Francis de Veyra (Seklusyon)
Marco Beltrami (The Shallows)
Roque Baños (Don't Breathe)

BEST HORROR FILM ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Love Witch
The Witch
Don't Breathe
Under the Shadow
The Conjuring 2

BEST SCARED AS SHIT PERFORMANCE
Jane Levy (Don't Breathe)
Vera Farmiga (The Conjuring 2)
Madison Wolfe (The Conjuring 2)
Kate Siegel (Hush)
Corbin Reid (Blair Witch)

BEST "MONSTER"
Black Phillip (The Witch)
Djinns (Under the Shadow)
The Blind Man (Don't Breathe)
Zombies (Train to Busan)
The creature (Blair Witch)

BEST SCENE/SEQUENCE
Timing the crossing of the train cars (Train to Busan)
Opening scene, body being dragged across the street (Don't Breathe)
Mating ritual on the beach (Evolution)
Elaine's dance of darkness and rainbow (The Love Witch)
Nightmare: Djinn through the crack in the ceiling (Under the Shadow)

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

89th Academy Award Predictions (summary)

Predicted Winners:

PICTURE
La La Land

DIRECTING
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Denzel Washington (Fences)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis (Fences)

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Barry Jenkins, based on the play by Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight)

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

ANIMATED FEATURE
Byron Howard, Rich Moore (Zootopia)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Tom Cross (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo (Star Trek Beyond)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"City of Stars" (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
David Wasco (Production Design); Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (Set Decoration) (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright (Hacksaw Ridge)

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow (La La Land)

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story)

Other Categories 2017

In order of likelihood of winning:

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Barry Jenkins, based on the play by Tarell Alvin McCraney (Moonlight)
Luke Davies, based on the book by Saroo Brierley (Lion)
Eric Heisserer, based on the short story by Ted Chiang (Arrival)
Allison Schroeder, Theodore Malfi, based on the book by Margot Lee Shetterly (Hidden Figures)
August Wilson, based on his play (Fences)

WILL WIN: Moonlight
SHOULD WIN: Arrival
MIGHT UPSET: Hidden Figures
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Silence

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Taylor Sheridan (Hell or High Water)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou (The Lobster)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: The Lobster
MIGHT UPSET: Manchester by the Sea
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Captain Fantastic

ANIMATED FEATURE
Byron Howard, Rich Moore (Zootopia)
Travis Knight (Kubo and the Two Strings)
Ron Clements, John Musker (Moana)
Claude Barras (My Life as a Zucchini)
Michael Dudok de Wit (The Red Turtle)

WILL WIN: Zootopia
SHOULD WIN: Zootopia
MIGHT UPSET: Kubo and the Two Strings
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Your Name

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Tanna (Australia)
The Salesman (Iran)
Land of Mine (Denmark)

WILL WIN: Toni Erdmann
MIGHT UPSET: The Salesman 
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Elle (France)

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren (La La Land)
Bradford Young (Arrival)
Rodrigo Prieto (Silence)
Greir Fraser (Lion)
James Laxton (Moonlight)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: La La Land
MIGHT UPSET: Silence
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jackie

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres (La La Land)
Madeline Fontaine (Jackie)
Consolata Boyle (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them)
Joanna Johnston (Allied)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: Jackie
MIGHT UPSET: Florence Foster Jenkins
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Silence

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Tom Cross (La La Land)
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (Moonlight)
Joe Walker (Arrival)
John Gilbert (Hacksaw Ridge)
Jake Roberts (Hell or High Water)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: La La Land
MIGHT UPSET: Arrival
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Silence

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo (Star Trek Beyond)
Eva von Bahr and Love Larson (A Man Called Ove)
Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson (Suicide Squad)

WILL WIN: Star Trek Beyond
SHOULD WIN: Star Trek Beyond
MIGHT UPSET: A Man Called Ove
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Silence

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Justin Hurwitz (La La Land)
Mica Levi (Jackie)
Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka (Lion)
Nicholas Britell (Moonlight)
Thomas Newman (Passengers)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: Jackie
MIGHT UPSET: Lion
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Witch

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"City of Stars" (La La Land)
"Audition: The Fools Who Dream" (La La Land)
"Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
"How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
"The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)

WILL WIN: "City of Stars"
SHOULD WIN: "City of Stars"
MIGHT UPSET: "How Far I'll Go"
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "We Know the Way" (Moana)

ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
David Wasco (Production Design); Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (Set Decoration) (La La Land)
Patrice Vermette (Production Design); Paul Hotte (Set Decoration) (Arrival)
Guy Hendrix Dyas (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration) (Passengers)
Stuart Craig (Production Design); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration) (Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them)
Jess Gonchor (Production Design); Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration) (Hail, Caesar!)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: Passengers
MIGHT UPSET: Passengers
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jackie

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright (Hacksaw Ridge)
Sylvain Bellemare (Arrival)
Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan (La La Land)
Alan Robert Murray and Bob Asman (Sully)
Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli (Deepwater Horizon)

WILL WIN: Hacksaw Ridge
SHOULD WIN: Arrival
MIGHT UPSET: La La Land
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Captain America: Civil War

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow (La La Land)
Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye (Arrival)
Kevin O'Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace (Hacksaw Ridge)
David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story)
Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth (13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi)

WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: La La Land
MIGHT UPSET: Hacksaw Ridge
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Moana

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story)
Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon (The Jungle Book)
Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould (Doctor Strange)
Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington and Burt Dalton (Deepwater Horizon)
Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff (Kubo and the Two Strings)

WILL WIN: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
SHOULD WIN: Doctor Strange
MIGHT UPSET: Doctor Strange
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 2017

In order of likelihood of winning:

1. MAHERSHALA ALI (MOONLIGHT)

Role: Juan, a drug dealer who acts as a surrogate father to a young gay black man

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Atlanta Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor (Male), San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actor, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor in a Supporting Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor (Male), Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, National Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Supporting Actor, BAFTA

2. DEV PATEL (LION)

Role: Saroo Brierly, a young Indian man adopted by an Australian family and searching for his real family

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Supporting Actor, BAFTA

3. MICHAEL SHANNON (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)

Role: Detective Bobby Andes, who investigates a case of abduction in a story

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor (Male), San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor in a Supporting Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association

4. JEFF BRIDGES (HELL OR HIGH WATER)

Role: Marcus Hamilton, a Texas Ranger searching for two bank robber brothers

Oscar Record: 7 nominations, with a win for Crazy Heart

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor (Male), San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor in a Supporting Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Supporting Actor, BAFTA

5. LUCAS HEDGES (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)

Role: Patrick Chandler, a boy who loses his father and gets his estranged uncle as his legal guardian

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Supporting Male, Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association

WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
SHOULD WIN: Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
MIGHT UPSET: Dev Patel (Lion)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash), Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)

BEST ACTOR 2017

In order of likelihood of winning:

1. DENZEL WASHINGTON (FENCES)

Role: Troy Maxson, a former baseball player and now a waste collector struggling to provide for his family

Oscar Record: 7 nominations, with wins for Glory and Training Day

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Actor, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association

2. CASEY AFFLECK (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)

Role: Lee Chandler, a man forced to return to his hometown to become the legal guardian of his nephew

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, Gotham Awards
Nomination, Best Male Lead, Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Actor, National Board of Review
Win, Best Actor, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Atlanta Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor (Male), San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Actor, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Lead Actor (Male), Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, National Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Leading Actor, BAFTA

3. RYAN GOSLING (LA LA LAND)

Role: Sebastian, a Los Angeles jazz musician

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor (Male), San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actor, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Leading Actor, BAFTA

4. ANDREW GARFIELD (HACKSAW RIDGE)

Role: Desmond Doss, a World War II American Army medic who becomes the first Medal of Honor winner without firing a shot

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Actor, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Nomination, Leading Actor, BAFTA

5. VIGGO MORTENSEN (CAPTAIN FANTASTIC)

Role: Ben Cash, the patriarch of a family that needs to reintegrate into society after a long isolation

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Male Lead, Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Actor (Male), San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actor, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Leading Actor, BAFTA


WILL WIN: Denzel Washington (Fences)
SHOULD WIN: Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
MIGHT UPSET: Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Andrew Garfield (Silence), Joel Edgerton (Loving)

BEST PICTURE 2017

In order of likelihood of winning:

1. LA LA LAND (Lionsgate)

Producers: Fred Berger, Gary Gilbert, Jordan Horowitz, Marc Platt
Director: Damien Chazelle
Writer: Damien Chazelle
Cast: Emma Stone, Ryan Gosling, Finn Wittrock, J.K. Simmons

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Golden Lion, Venice Film Festival
Citation, Top Film, National Board of Review
Win, Best Film, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Atlanta Film Critics Society
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Boston Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Best Picture, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
#3 Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Film, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Film, BAFTA
Win, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

2. MOONLIGHT (A24)

Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski
Director: Barry Jenkins
Writers: Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
Cast: Mahershala Ali, Janelle Monáe, Naomie Harris, André Holland

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Feature, Gotham Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Independent Spirit Awards
Citation, Top Film, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Picture, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Picture, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Picture, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Film, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, National Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Best Film, BAFTA
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

3. HIDDEN FIGURES (Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation)

Producers: Peter Chernin, Donna Gigliotti, Theodore Melfi, Jenno Topping, Pharrell Williams
Director: Theodore Melfi
Writers: Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, based on the book by Margot Lee Shetterly
Cast: Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monáe, Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, Jim Parsons, Mahershala Ali, Glen Powell

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Citation, Top Film, National Board of Review
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
#9 Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

4. LION (The Weinstein Company)

Producers: Iain Canning, Angie Fielder, Emile Sherman
Director: Garth Davis
Writer: Luke Davies, based on the book by Saroo Brierley and Larry Buttrose
Cast: Dev Patel, Rooney Mara, Nicole Kidman, David Wenham

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

5. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Roadside Attractions)

Producers: Lauren Beck, Matt Damon, Chris Moore, Kimberly Steward, Kevin J. Walsh
Director: Kenneth Lonergan
Writer: Kenneth Lonergan
Cast: Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler, Lucas Hedges

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Film, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Detroit Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Runner-up, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
#2 Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Film, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Film, BAFTA
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

6. ARRIVAL (Paramount Pictures)

Producers: Daniel S. Levine, Shawn Levy, David Linde, Karen Lunder, Aaron Ryder
Director: Denis Villeneuve
Writer: Eric Heisserer, based on the short story by Ted Chiang
Cast: Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Michael Stuhlbarg, Forest Whitaker

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Citation, Top Film, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
#6 Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Film, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Film, BAFTA
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

7. HACKSAW RIDGE (Lionsgate, Summit Entertainment)

Producers: Terry Benedict, Paul Currie, Bruce Davey, William D. Johnson, Bill Mechanic, Brian Oliver, David Permut
Director: Mel Gibson
Writers: Robert Schenkkan, Andrew Knight
Cast: Andrew Garfield, Hugo Weaving, Rachel Griffiths

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Citation, Top Film, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Film, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

8. HELL OR HIGH WATER (CBS Films)

Producers: Peter Berg, Carla Hacken, Sidney Kimmel, Julie Yorn
Director: David Mackenzie
Writer: Taylor Sheridan
Cast: Chris Pine, Jeff Bridges, Ben Foster, Gil Birmingham

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Citation, Top Film, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Motion Picture - Drama, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
#4 Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Film, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

9. FENCES (Paramount Pictures)

Producers: Todd Black, Scott Rudin, Denzel Washington
Director: Denzel Washington
Writer: August Wilson, based on his play
Cast: Denzel Washington, Viola Davis, Mykelti Williamson, Russell Hornsby, Stephen Henderson

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Picture, Critics' Choice Awards
Citation, Movies of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
#7 Film, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America


WILL WIN: La La Land
SHOULD WIN: Arrival
MIGHT UPSET: Moonlight
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Silence, Captain Fantastic

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Call Me By Your Name

The film Call Me By Your Name was hailed by critics and audiences in the recent Sundance Film Festival and got a similarly enthusiastic response as it closed the Berlin Film Festival just two days ago. Next year's Oscar favorite? Maybe, if the homosexual nature of the story (it's an intense romance between two men, played by Timothee Chalamet and Armie Hammer) doesn't put off the voters the way it did with Brokeback Mountain and, more recently, Carol. But acting nominations are probably in the bag for Chalamet, Hammer, and maybe even Michael Stuhlbarg, who plays the father of Chalamet's character Elio.
Had to read the book as soon as I learned of the raves coming from Sundance. It is exceptionally beautifully written. The prose of writer André Aciman is staggering. Seems a perfect fit for the aesthetics of Italian director Luca Guadagnino (I Am Love, A Bigger Splash, and the upcoming Suspiria remake). I just can't help but wonder how he'll pull of some scenes, especially a certain one involving a peach...

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

BEST DIRECTOR 2017

In order of likelihood of winning:

1. DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)

Oscar Record: 3 nominations as director and writer, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Director, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Atlanta Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Boston Online Film Critics
Win, Best Director, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Director, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director - Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Direction of a Motion Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Director, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Directing, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Director, BAFTA
Win, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

2. BARRY JENKINS (MOONLIGHT)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations as director and writer, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Director, National Board of Review
Win, Best Director, New York Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, New York Film Critics Online
Nomination, Best Director, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director - Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Direction of a Motion Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Directing, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, National Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Director, BAFTA
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

3. KENNETH LONERGAN (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)

Oscar Record: 4 nominations as director and writer, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, San Diego Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Director, Boston Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Best Director, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director - Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Direction of a Motion Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Director, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Director, BAFTA
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

4. DENIS VILLENEUVE (ARRIVAL)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination as director, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Director, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Direction of a Motion Picture, Houston Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Director, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Director, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Director, BAFTA
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America

5. MEL GIBSON (HACKSAW RIDGE)

Oscar Record: 3 nominations as producer and director, with wins for producing and directing Braveheart

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Director - Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Director, Phoenix Film Critics Society

WILL WIN: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
SHOULD WIN: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
MIGHT UPSET: Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Martin Scorsese (Silence)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 2017

In order of likelihood of winning:

1. VIOLA DAVIS (FENCES)

Role: Rose Maxson, wife of a former baseball player struggling to provide for his family

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Supporting Actress, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Win, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor (Female), Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Supporting Actress, BAFTA

2. MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)

Role: Randi, ex-wife of a man who is forced by circumstances to return to his hometown

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, New York Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor (Female), San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Detroit Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor (Female), Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, National Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Supporting Actress, BAFTA

3. NAOMIE HARRIS (MOONLIGHT)

Role: Paula, a crack addict who's the mother of a black gay man

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Actress in a Supporting Role, Phoenix Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor (Female), Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Central Ohio Film Critics Association
Nomination, Supporting Actress, BAFTA

4. NICOLE KIDMAN (LION)

Role: Sue Brierley, adoptive mother to an Indian boy seeking his past

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Critics' Choice Awards
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor (Female), San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Supporting Actress, BAFTA

5. OCTAVIA SPENCER (HIDDEN FIGURES)

Role: Dorothy Vaughan, one of the team of black female mathematicians who helped NASA win the space race

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, with a win for The Help

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture, Golden Globes
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, Houston Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Florida Film Critics Circle

WILL WIN: Viola Davis (Fences)
SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis (Fences)
MIGHT UPSET: Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)