Tuesday, September 04, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

LIKELY

1. TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (BEAUTIFUL BOY)


Role: Nic Sheff, a teen whose life spirals due to meth addiction

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

How close did Timothée Chalamet get to winning an Oscar? We will never know, but there's no denying how big a star he has become and the amount of respect that he gained among his peers due to Call Me By Your Name. Who's not excited to see him apply his tremendous acting talent to the role of a long-suffering meth addict? If it's a good enough film that gets traction in major categories, see him quickly become the front runner in this race.

MAYBE

2. SAM ROCKWELL (BACKSEAT)

Role: George W. Bush, 43rd President of the USA

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Sam Rockwell might be back in this category the year immediately following the one that saw him get his first Oscar. He's a very strong actor, and people are probably very excited to see how he portrays President Bush. If it doesn't stray too far into caricature territory, then he's probably a safe bet. At the very least, it will be great fun to watch him perform.

3. SAM ELLIOTT (A STAR IS BORN)


Role: Bobby, manager to stars Jackson and Ally

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

This grizzled veteran is well regarded but has never gotten a nomination. This might be his career nomination, but only if the film gets huge. So far, critics haven't been very excited about his performance even when they absolutely adore the movie. He hasn't displaced the conversations from the performances of Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga.

POSSIBLE

4. RUSSELL CROWE (BOY ERASED)


Role: Marshall Conley, a Baptist pastor who sends his son to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Gladiator

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Russell Crowe has not been in a major Oscar player for quite some time, so the Academy might be eager to welcome him back, even if the role is not sympathetic. It could be a hefty dramatic turn.

5. J.K. SIMMONS (THE FRONT RUNNER)


Role: Bill Dixon, campaign manager of Senator Gary Hart

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Whiplash

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

In what seems like a rather weak category, former Oscar winner J.K. Simmons can get into the nominees' circle again with what looks like (from the trailer) a fiery performance in a big supporting role. It certainly looks exciting. If the movie becomes a major player, he might even threaten to win.

6. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Role: Jack Hock, Lee Israel's friend and accomplice

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)

Role: French artist Paul Gauguin

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

Role: Detective Flip Zimmerman, Ron Stallworth's cover in the Ku Klux Klan

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Role: Mr. Rivers, a man who helps his daughter prove her jailed fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)

Role: Victor Sykes, head therapist in a gay conversion program

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Harvey Keitel (The Irishman)
Logan Lerman (Newsflash)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Mark Ruffalo (Newsflash)
Forest Whitaker (Burden)
Jeffrey Wright (Monster)

Other Contenders:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Jack Black (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
Steve Carell (Backseat)
Russell Crowe (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Ricard Darín (Everybody Knows)
Bruce Dern (White Boy Rick)
Stephen Dillane (Outlaw King)
Jamie Dornan (A Private War)
Tom Felton (Ophelia)
Ralph Fiennes (The White Crow)
Dave Franco (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Bruno Ganz (The Party)
Bruno Ganz (Radegund)
Topher Grace (Under the Silver Lake)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Sisters Brothers)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife)
Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Jonah Hill (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Nicholas Hoult (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
Toby Kebbell (Destroyer)
Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
Jude Law (A Rainy Day in New York)
George MacKay (Ophelia)
Cillian Murphy (The Party)
Michael Nyqvist (Radegund)
Clive Owen (Ophelia)
Jürgen Prochnow (Radegund)
Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
Tahar Ramin (New York Winter Palace)
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
Sam Rockwell (Woman Walks Ahead)
Matthis Schoenaerts (Radegund)
Michael Shannon (What They Had)
Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Outlaw King)
Stanley Tucci (A Private War)
Sam Waterston (On the Basis of Sex)
Dominic West (Colette)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
5. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
6. Jonathan Pryce (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
7. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
8. Steve Carell (Backseat)
9. Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
10. Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)

August Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
3. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
5. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
6. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
9. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
10. Steve Carell (Backseat)

BEST ACTRESS (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCK

1. GLENN CLOSE (THE WIFE)

Role: Joan Castleman, a woman who experiences a crisis as she accompanies her husband to his Nobel Prize awarding

Oscar Record: 6 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Ever since this was announced some years back, prognosticators began to declare it as Glenn Close's chance to finally win an Oscar after six nominations. It was shown in limited release last year and pretty much confirmed it: yes, this is a slam dunk for Close and one of her best performances. It's been shelved until this year, when the Best Actress category is less crowded than last year's ultra-hot race. Let's hope the strategy pays off.

LIKELY

2. LADY GAGA (A STAR IS BORN)

Role: Ally, a young singer and actress on the cusp of fame

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (for original song), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

This film could be huge. Two of the three previous incarnations got their leads Best Actress nominations. Lady Gaga is well-respected and is no stranger to the Academy, and here she's stripped down, de-glammed, and raw. The critics in Venice are being very generous to her debut film performance, and she's owning the red carpet. If this film is a huge hit, she won't have a difficult time getting a nomination.

MAYBE

3. KIKI LAYNE (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Role: Clementine "Tish" Rivers, who races to prove the innocence of her fiancé and father of her unborn child

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

In many ways, the emotional success of the film hinges on KiKi Layne's performance. That's tough for a young actress, and the trailer doesn't tell us much about her capabilities, but Barry Jenkins has brought up tender, heartfelt, and Oscar-nominated/winning performances before, so let's cross our fingers that she delivers. If she does, and the film is as liked as we think it would be, she's in.

4. VIOLA DAVIS (WIDOWS)

Role: Veronica Rawlins, who inherits her criminal husband's debts

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Fences

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Viola Davis can do no wrong. She is simply spectacular in the kind of powerfully raw, damaged roles that she has here. Steve McQueen as the director also bodes well for the film, as does the all-female cast, but is the film really so much more than just a heist movie?

POSSIBLE

5. NICOLE KIDMAN (DESTROYER)

Role: Erin Bell, an undercover police detective

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

The word is out from Telluride: Nicole Kidman is phenomenal. Barely recognizable and ultra raw, the always risk-taking Kidman seems to have taken on the toughest role of her career, and critics are praising her for it. Will this movie be seen by enough Academy voters, though?

6. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Role: Lee Israel, writer and forger

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Toni Collette (Hereditary)

Role: Annie Graham, whose family experiences bizarre incidents after her mother dies

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)

Role: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

Role: Mary Stuart, cousin to Queen Elizabeth and usurper to the throne

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)

Role: Holly Burns, whose troubled son returns on Christmas eve

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for Erin Brockovich

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these might displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
Jessica Chastain (Woman Walks Ahead)
Lily Collins (Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile
Elizabeth Debicki (Vita and Virginia)
Judi Dench (Red Joan)
Dakota Fanning (The Bell Jar)
Julianne Moore (Gloria)
Julianne Moore (My Life On the Road)
Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Daisy Ridley (Ophelia)

Other Contenders:
Annette Bening (Georgetown)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Penélope Cruz (Everybody Knows)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Elle Fanning (A Rainy Day in New York)
Elle Fanning (I Think We're Alone Now)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Taraji P. Henson (The Best of Enemies)
Dakota Johnson (Suspiria)
Keira Knightley (Colette)
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Diane Lane (Serenity)
Danielle Macdonald (Dumplin')
Chloë Grace Moretz (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Michelle Pfeiffer (Where is Kyra?)
Natalie Portman (Annihilation)
Andrea Riseborough (New York Winter Palace)
Kristin Scott Thomas (The Party)
Chloë Sevigny (Lizzie)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
Tessa Thompson (Sorry to Bother You)
Mia Wasikowska (Damsel)
Rachel Weisz (Disobedience)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
3. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
4. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
5. Charlize Theron (Tully)
6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
7. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
8. Annette Bening (The Seagull)
9. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
10. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

August Predictions
1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
3. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
4. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
7. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
8. Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
9. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
10. Viola Davis (Widows)

Sunday, September 02, 2018

PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
First Man
A Star is Born
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Beautiful Boy
Eighth Grade
The Front Runner

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Christian Bale (Backseat)
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
J.K Simmons (The Front Runner)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams (Backseat)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Adam McKay (Backseat)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Josh Singer, based on the book by James R. Hansen (First Man)
Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BlacKkKlansman)
Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman, based on the book by Matt Bai (The Front Runner)
Luke Davies, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (Beautiful Boy)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson)
Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (Phil Johnston, Rich Moore)
Smallfoot (Karey Kirkpatrick)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren (First Man)
James Laxton (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)
Dion Beebe (Mary Poppins Returns)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)
Jenny Beavan (The Nutcracker and the Four Realms)

BEST FILM EDITING
Tom Cross (First Man)
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough (Roma)
Jay Cassidy (A Star is Born)
Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mary Queen of Scots
The Favourite
Suspiria

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
Michel Legrand (The Other Side of the Wind)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
SOON!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria)

BEST SOUND EDITING
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One

BEST SOUND MIXING
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star is Born
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Black Panther

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Mortal Engines

Nominations Tally:
First Man - 10
Black Panther - 8
The Favourite - 8
If Beale Street Could Talk - 7
A Star is Born - 7
Mary Poppins Returns - 5
Roma - 5
Backseat - 4
Beautiful Boy - 4
The Front Runner - 4
BlacKkKlansman - 3
Mary Queen of Scots - 3
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 3
Avengers: Infinity War - 2
Eighth Grade - 2
Isle of Dogs - 2
Ready Player One - 2
Suspiria - 2
Boy Erased - 1
Destroyer - 1
First Reformed - 1
Incredibles 2 - 1
Mortal Engines - 1
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 1
The Other Side of the Wind - 1
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1
Smallfoot - 1

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1
Widows - 1
The Wife - 1

TECHNICAL CATEGORIES (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Linus Sandgren (First Man)
2. James Laxton (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
4. Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)
5. Dion Beebe (Mary Poppins Returns)

6. Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
7. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Suspiria)
8. John Mathieson (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Eric Steelberg (The Front Runner)
10. Gary Graver (The Other Side of the Wind)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
2. Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
3. Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)
5. Jenny Beavan (The Nutcracker and the Four Realms)

6. Mary E. Vogt (Crazy Rich Asians)
7. Marci Rodgers (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Giulia Piersanti (Suspiria)
9. Milena Canonero (The Sisters Brothers)
10. Mary Zophres (First Man)

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Tom Cross (First Man)
2. Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough (Roma)
4. Jay Cassidy (A Star is Born)
5. Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)

6. Debbie Berman, Michael P. Shawver (Black Panther)
7. Stefan Grube (The Front Runner)
8. Barry Alexander Brown (BlacKkKlansman)
9. Bob Murawski, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
10. Eddie Hamilton (Mission: Impossible - Fallout)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Mary Queen of Scots
2. The Favourite
3. Suspiria

4. Backseat
5. Mary Poppins Returns
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Black Panther
8. A Star is Born
9. How to Talk to Girls at Parties
10. BlacKkKlansman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
2. Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
3. Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
4. Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
5. Michel Legrand (The Other Side of the World)

6. ? (The Favourite)
7. Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)
8. John Ottman (Bohemian Rhapsody)
9. ? (Beautiful Boy)
10. Thom Yorke (Suspiria)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
SOON!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
2. James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
3. John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
5. Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria)

6. Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (First Man)
7. Nelson Coates, Andrew Baseman (Crazy Rich Asians)
8. Neil Lamont, David Crossman, Glyn Dillon (Solo: A Star Wars Story)
9. Stéphane Cressend, Cecile Vatelot (At Eternity's Gate)
10. Grace Yun, Brian Lives (Hereditary)

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. First Man
2. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
3. Black Panther
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Ready Player One

6. Incredibles 2
7. Mortal Engines
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story
9. Pacific Rim: Uprising
10. Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. First Man
2. Mary Poppins Returns
3. A Star is Born
4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
5. Black Panther

6. Isle of Dogs
7. The Other Side of the Wind
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. Incredibles 2
10. Avengers: Infinity War

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
5. Mortal Engines

6. First Man
7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story
9. Annihilation
10. A Wrinkle in Time

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS

1. ISLE OF DOGS (23 March, Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Wes Anderson
Writers: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman
Producers: Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin
Cast: Bryan Cranston, Koyu Rankin, Edward Norton, Liev Schreiber, Greta Gerwig, Tracy Walker, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Bob Balaban, Scarlett Johansson, Courtney B. Vance, Kunichi Nomura, Tilda Swinton

Plot (IMDb): Set in Japan, Isle of Dogs follows a boy's odyssey in search of his dog.

Pre-Oscars Citations:
None

This could end up being one of the most critically acclaimed films (animated or otherwise) of the year, though there is some controversy (silly, IMO) about the "appropriation" of Japanese culture. A nomination is a pretty sure bet, but a win would be hard because of Incredibles 2.

2. INCREDIBLES 2 (15 June, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Director: Brad Bird
Writer: Brad Bird
Producers: Nicole Paradis Grindle, John Walker
Cast: Holly Hunter, Craig T. Nelson, Samuel L. Jackson, Catherine Keener, Sophia Bush, Jonathan Banks, Bob Odenkirk, Isabella Rossellini, John Ratzenberger, Brad Bird, Sarah Vowell, Huck Milner

Plot (IMDb): Bob Parr (Mr. Incredible) is left to care for Jack-Jack while Helen (Elastigirl) is out saving the world.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Finally, the long-anticipated sequel of the much-loved blockbuster The Incredibles is finally upon us. It has largely wowed audiences and critics, so it can easily win this category over the less mainstream Isle of Dogs.

MOST LIKELY

3. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET: WRECK-IT-RALPH 2 (21 November, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Directors: Phil Johnston, Rich Moore
Writers: Phil Johnston, Pamela Ribon
Producer: Clark Spencer
Cast: John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Kristen Bell, Taraji P. Henson, Mandy Moore, Auli'l Cravalho, Kelly Macdonald, Allan Tudyk, Ming-Na Wen, Idina Menzel, Ed O'Neill, Jane Lynch, Anika Noni Rose, Jodi Benson

Plot (IMDb): Six years after the events of "Wreck-It Ralph," Ralph and Vanellope, now friends, discover a wi-fi router in their arcade, leading them into a new adventure.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Another sequel of another highly regarded animated film. This looks like it's going to be even more fun, and the addition of the Disney princesses may prove to be irresistible to the voters. This one can even upset.

POSSIBLE

4. SMALLFOOT (28 September, Warner Bros.)

Director: Karey Kirkpatrick
Writers: Glenn Ficarra, Karey Kirkpatrick, Sergio Pablos, John Requa
Producers: Glenn Ficarra, Bonne Radford, John Requa
Cast: Zendaya, Gina Rodriguez, Channing Tatum, Common, Danny DeVito, James Corden

Plot (IMDb): A Yeti is convinced that the elusive creatures known as "humans" really do exist.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

The plot sounds like a lot of fun and probably has not-so-subtle digs at the lack of inclusivity and tolerance in today's society. It's got a pretty mean voice cast, too.

5. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (14 December, Columbia Pictures, Sony Pictures Releasing)

Directors: Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Writer: Phil Lord, based on characters created by Brian Michael Bendis, Steve Ditko, Stan Lee, Sara Pichelli
Producer: Christina Steinberg 
Cast: Hailee Steinfeld, Nicolas Cage, Jake Johnson, Shameik Moore, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry

Plot (IMDb): Spider-Man crosses parallel dimensions and teams up with the Spider-Men of those dimensions to stop a threat to all reality.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Why not? All things Marvel are hot now, Miles Morales brings major representation, and the trailer looks sick.

6. Early Man (16 February, Lionsgate)

Director: Nick Park
Writers: Mark Burton, James Higginson
Producers: Richard Beek, Peter Lord, Nick Park, Carla Shelley, David Sproxton
Cast: Tom Hiddleston, Eddie Redmayne, Maisie Williams

Plot (IMDb): Set at the dawn of time, when prehistoric creatures and woolly mammoths roamed the earth, Early Man tells the story of Dug, along with sidekick Hognob as they unite his tribe against a mighty enemy Lord Nooth and his Bronze Age City to save their home.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (22 August, Fathom Events)

Director: Masaaki Yuasa
Writer: Makoto Ueda, based on the novel by Tomihiko Morimi
Producers: Junnosuke Itô, Noriko Ozaki
Cast: Gen Hoshino, Kana Hanazawa, Hiroshi Kamiya

Plot (IMDb): The story of the titular girl known only as "Otome" and her insanely long night of partying and drinking-complete with a book fair, festival, and many adventures in between. It is also the story of "Senpai," her upper class man who has been attempting to get closer to her by "coincidentally" running into her again and again. However, on this night, meeting up with her may be the greatest challenge of his life.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. The Grinch (9 November, Universal Pictures)

Directors: Yarrow Cheney, Scott Mosier
Writer: Michael LeSieur, based on the book by Dr. Seuss
Producers: Christopher Melendandri, Scott Mosier
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch

Plot (IMDb): A grumpy Grinch plots to ruin Christmas for the village of Whoville.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Mirai (TBA, GKids)

Director: Mamoru Hosoda
Writers: Mamoru Hosoda
Producers: Yuichi Adachi, Takuya Itô, Genki Kawamura, Yuichiro Sato
Cast: Haru Kuroki, Moka Kamishiraishi, Gen Hoshino

Plot (IMDb): A young boy encounters a magical garden which enables him to travel through time and meet his relatives from different eras, with guidance by his younger sister from the future.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (27 July, Warner Bros.)

Directors: Aaron Horvath, Peter Rida Michail
Writers: Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, based on characters created by Bob Haney, Bruno Premiani, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic
Producers: Will Arnett, Peter Rida Michail, Peggy Regan
Cast: Nicolas Cage, Kristen Bell, Halsey, James Corden, Will Arnett, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, Greg Cipes, Hynden Walch, Scott Menville, Lil Yachty

Plot (IMDb): A villain's maniacal plan for world domination sidetracks five teenage superheroes who dream of Hollywood stardom.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Other Contenders:
The Ark and the Aardvark
Attack on Titan: The Roar of Awakening
Boonie Bears: The Big Shrink
Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer
Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Treasure Island
Duck, Duck, Goose
Fireworks
Hodja and the Magic Carpet
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Inzomnia
The Legend of Charro Negro
The Legend of Muay Thai: 9 Satra
Lu Over the Wall
Luis and the Aliens
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms
Marcianos vs. Mexicanos
Marvel Rising: Secret Warriors
Maya the Bee: The Honey Games
Pokémon the Movie: Everyone's Story
Sherlock Gnomes
Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero
Troll: The Tail of a Tail
Uru in Blue
White Fang

"Never Too Early Predictions" (March 2018)
1. Isle of Dogs
2. Incredibles 2
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2
4. The Grinch
5. Smallfoot
6. Early Man
7. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
8. Batman Ninja
9. Teen Titans Go! to the Movies
10. Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero

August Predictions
1. Isle of Dogs
2. Incredibles 2
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2
4. Smallfoot
5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
6. Early Man
7. The Night is Short, Walk on Girl
8. The Grinch
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
10. Mirai

BEST ADAPTED SCREEPLAY (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. JOSH SINGER, based on the book by James R. Hansen (FIRST MAN)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for writing Spotlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

LIKELY

2. BARRY JENKINS, based on the novel by James Baldwin (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

3. CHARLIE WACHTEL, DAVID RABINOWITZ, KEVIN WILLMOTT, SPIKE LEE, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BLACKKKLANSMAN)

Oscar Records:
Wachtel: No nomination
Rabinowitz: No nomination
Willmott: No nomination
Lee: 2 nominations (as writer and for documentary feature), with an Honorary Award

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

4. MATT BAI, JAY CARSON, JASON REITMAN, based on the book by Matt Bai (THE FRONT RUNNER)

Oscar Records:
Bai: No nomination
Carson: No nomination
Reitman: 4 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

5. LUKE DAVIES, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

6. Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, based on a story by William A. Wellman, Robert Carson (A Star is Born)

Oscar Records:
Roth: 4 nominations (as writer), with a win for Forrest Gump
Cooper: 4 nominations (as producer, actor), no win
Fetters: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, based on characters created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby (Black Panther)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Joel Edgerton, based on the book by Garrard Conley (Boy Erased)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, based on the book by Kevin Kwan (Crazy Rich Asians)

Oscar Records: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, based on the comic book by Fabien Nury, Thierry Robin (The Death of Stalin)

Oscar Records:
Nury: No nomination
Iannucci: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Schneider: No nomination
Martin: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Screenplay (Adapted), BAFTA (2017)

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these might displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Kirsten Dunst, Nellie Kim, based on the novel by Sylvia Plath (The Bell Jar)
Steve Zaillian, based on the book by Charles Brandt (The Irishman)
Tony Kushner, based on the novel by David I. Kertzer (The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara)
Janece Shaffer, Colen C. Wiley, based on the novel by Walter Dean Myers (Monster)
Geoffrey Fletcher, based on the magazine article by David Grann (Trial by Fire)

Other Contenders:
Alex Garland, based on the novel by Jeff VanderMeer (Annihilation)
Robin Bissell, based on the book by Osha Gray Davidson (The Best of Enemies)
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Robert Rodat, based on the book by Nicholas Dawidoff (The Catcher Was a Spy)
Sebastián Lelio, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, based on the novel by Naomi Alderman (Disobedience)
Gus Van Sant, based on the book by John Callahan (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Kristin Hahn, based on the novel by Julie Murphy (Dumplin')
Brad Bird, based on characters created by Brad Bird (Incredibles 2)
Andrew Haigh, based on the novel by Willy Vlautin (Lean on Pete)
Debra Granik, based on the novel by Peter Rock (Leave No Trace)
David Magee, based on the books by P.L. Travers (Mary Poppins Returns)
Beau Willimon, based on the book by John Guy (Mary Queen of Scots)
Desiree Akhavan, Cecilia Frugiuele, based on the novel by Emily M. Danforth (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Semi Chellas, based on the book by Lisa Klein (Ophelia)
Arash Amel, based on the magazine article by Marie Brenner (A Private War)
Jacques Audiard, based on the novel by Patrick Dewitt (The Sisters Brothers)
David Kajganich, based on characters created by Dario Argento, Daria Nicolodi (Suspiria)
Shaun Grant, based on the novel by Peter Carey (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Chanya Button, based on the play by Eileen Atkins (Vita and Virginia)
David Hare, based on the book by Julie Kavanagh (The White Crow)
Jane Anderson, based on the novel by Meg Wolitzer (The Wife)
Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan, based on the novel by Richard Ford (Wildlife)
Lynne Ramsay, based on the book by Jonathan Ames (You Were Never Really Here)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
2. Josh Singer (First Man)
3. Richard Linklater, Holly Gent, Vincent Palmo Jr. (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
4. Luke Davies (Beautiful Boy)
5. Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (Black Panther)
6. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
7. Brad Bird (Incredibles 2)
8. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin (The Death of Stalin)
9. Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
10. Beau Willimon (Mary Queen of Scots)

August Predictions
1. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
2. Josh Singer (First Man)
3. Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
4. Luke Davies (Beautiful Boy)
5. Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (Black Panther)
6. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
7. Eri Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters (A Star is Born)
8. Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
9. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin (The Death of Stalin)
10. Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)