Wednesday, January 16, 2019

BEST ACTOR (91st)

FINAL PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS


1. BRADLEY COOPER (A STAR IS BORN)


Role: Jackson Maine, a musician struggling with addictions

Oscar Record: 4 nominations (as producer, actor), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Runner-up, Best Actor, Indiana Film Journalists Association (SAG)
Nomination, Best Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Between his excellent directing and his excellent acting, he's a surefire nominee. The win is not as likely.


2. CHRISTIAN BALE (VICE)

Role: Dick Cheney, the 46th Vice President of the USA

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for The Fighter

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Actor, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Win, Best Actor, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Actor, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

The bottom line is: it's a phenomenal performance. He has the momentum right now. Only politics would prevent many actors from voting for him.

MOST LIKELY

3. RAMI MALEK (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY)


Role: Freddie Mercury, vocalist of Queen

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

Even the critics widely praise Rami Malek for his committed, uncanny performance as Queen leader Freddie Mercury. It's really astonishing. He's the energy at the center of the movie, and very few could be unmoved by his performance during the Live Aid scenes. The crowd at the Globes ate up his win. Even the film itself is getting tons of accolades from the industry.

4. VIGGO MORTENSEN (GREEN BOOK)

Role: Tony Lip, Italian-American bouncer who becomes the driver of an African-American classical pianist

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Actor, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Best Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

He started off joining the race so hot. But while he has not missed out on any of the major precursors and he's a highly regarded actor, a lot of controversy is surrounding the film. It's unlikely to derail a nomination, though.

POSSIBLE

5. ETHAN HAWKE (FIRST REFORMED)


Role: Toller, a priest tormented by despair and a troubled past

Oscar Record: 4 nominations (as actor and writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best Actor, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Actor, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Lead Actor, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Actor, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Actor, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actor, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Actor, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actor, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actor, Seattle Film Critics Society

The critics have spoken: Ethan Hawke is their man. So what's up with snubs from the Golden Globes and, more important, SAG and BAFTA? It's a very precarious position. John David Washington is in a very good position to take the fifth slot, especially because BlacKkKlansman seems to be well-loved.

6. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Role: Ron Stallworth, a black man who infiltrates the Ku Klux Klan

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)

7. Ryan Gosling (First Man)

Role: Neil Armstrong, the first man on the moon

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

8. Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

Role: Earl Stone, a horticulturist and WWII veteran caught transporting $3 million worth of cocaine

Oscar Record: 11 nominations (as actor, director, producer), with wins for producing and directing Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby, and the Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)

Role: Vincent Van Gogh

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

10. Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)

Role: Forrest Tucker, a serial bank robber

Oscar Record: 4 nominations (as actor, director, producer), with a win for directing Ordinary People and an Honorary Award

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)

Other Contenders:
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther)
Steve Carell (The Women of Marwen)
Steve Coogan (Stan and Ollie) - Nomination, Best Leading Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace) - Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award; Runner-up, Best Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) - Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Ryan Gosling (First Man)
2. Christian Bale (Backseat)
3. Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
4. Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
5. Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
6. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
7. Steve Carell (The Women of Marwen)
8. Colin Firth (The Mercy)
9. Chiwetel Ejiofor (Come Sunday)
10. Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther)

August Predictions
1. Ryan Gosling (First Man)
2. Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
3. Christian Bale (Backseat)
4. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
5. Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
6. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
7. Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
8. Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
9. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
10. Steve Carell (The Women of Marwen)

September Predictions
1. Ryan Gosling (First Man)
2. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
3. Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
4. Christian Bale (Backseat/Vice)
5. Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
6. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
7. Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
8. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
10. Steve Carell (The Women of Marwen)

October Predictions
1. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
2. Ryan Gosling (First Man)
3. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
4. Christian Bale (Vice)
5. Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
6. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
8. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
9. Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
10. Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)

November Predictions
1. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
2. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
3. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
4. Christian Bale (Vice)
5. Ryan Gosling (First Man)
6. Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
7. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
8. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Hugh Jackman (The Frontrunner)
10. Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)

December Predictions
1. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
2. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
3. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
4. Christian Bale (Vice)
5. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
6. Ryan Gosling (First Man)
7. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
9. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)

10. Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)

BEST ACTRESS (91st)

FINAL PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS


1. LADY GAGA (A STAR IS BORN)


Role: Ally, a young singer and actress on the cusp of fame

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (for original song), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Win, Best Actress, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Actress, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

There's almost no doubt that Lady Gaga will be nominated. The film and the performance are too big to deny. A win is another matter entirely.

2. GLENN CLOSE (THE WIFE)

Role: Joan Castleman, a woman who experiences a crisis as she accompanies her husband to his Nobel Prize awarding

Oscar Record: 6 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nominee, Best Actress, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best Actress, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Best Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

It's her time, and that Golden Globes speech likely cemented it. When the nomination becomes official, she'll be the (deserved) front runner for the win. If she wins in SAG, it's in the bag.

3. OLIVIA COLMAN (THE FAVOURITE)

Role: Queen Anne, for whose favor two cousins battle

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Volpi Cup for Best Actress, Venice Film Festival
Win, Best Lead Actress, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Win, Best Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Utah Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Her performance is loved all over. As most expect, she'll probably rally at BAFTA and muddle the race further.

LIKELY

4. MELISSA MCCARTHY (CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?)


Role: Lee Israel, a disgraced writer

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Actress, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Actress, New York Film Critics Online
Runner-up, Best Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Win, Best Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics
Nomination, Best Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

The critics and the independent film bodies have strangely not warmed up to her, but the SAG boost says she has industry support. Far from a sure bet, though.

POSSIBLE

5. TONI COLLETTE (HEREDITARY)


Role: Annie Graham, whose family experiences bizarre incidents after her mother dies

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best Actress, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Actress, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Actress, Chicago Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Actress, Seattle Film Critics Society

Going out on a limb here and saying Toni Collette gets the last spot on the power of her masterful performance, general respect among peers, and the push from the critics. That SAG snubbed her is likely telling, but stranger things have happened. She so deserves a nomination.

6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)

Role: Mary Poppins, everyone's favorite nanny

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)

7. Viola Davis (Widows)

Role: Veronica Rawlins, who inherits her criminal husband's debts

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Fences

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Actress, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Leading Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)


8. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)

Role: Erin Bell, an undercover police detective

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:

Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)

9. Rosamund Pike (A Private War)

Role: Marie Colvin, a war correspondent

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)

10. Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)

Role: Holly Burns, who has to protect her addicted son

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for Erin Brockovich

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Other Contenders:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) - Nomination, Breakthrough Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award; Nomination, Best Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice); Runner-up, Best Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place); Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) - Nominee, Breakthrough Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award; Nomination, Best Actress, Film Independent Spirit Awards; Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes); Win, Most Promising Performer, Chicago Film Critics Association; Win, Best Actress, Utah Film Critics Association
Regina Hall (Support the Girls) - Win, Best Actress, New York Film Critics Circle; Runner-up, Best Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk) - Nominee, Breakthrough Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award; Win, Best Breakthrough Performance, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace) - Nominee, Breakthrough Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)- Nomination, Best Actress, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
Amandla Stenberg (The Hate U Give) - Win, Best Actress, Indiana Film Journalists Association

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
3. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
4. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
5. Charlize Theron (Tully)
6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
7. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
8. Annette Bening (The Seagull)
9. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
10. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

August Predictions
1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
3. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
4. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
7. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
8. Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
9. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
10. Viola Davis (Widows)

September Predictions
1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
3. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
4. Viola Davis (Widows)
5. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
6. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
7. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
8. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
10. Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)

October Predictions
1. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
2. Glenn Close (The Wife)
3. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
4. Viola Davis (Widows)
5. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
6. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
7. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
8. KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
9. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
10. Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)

November Predictions
1. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
2. Glenn Close (The Wife)
3. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
4. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
5. Viola Davis (Widows)
6. Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
7. Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
8. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
9. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
10. Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

December Predictions
1. Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
2. Glenn Close (The Wife)
3. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
4. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
5. Toni Collette (Hereditary)
6. Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
7. Viola Davis (Widows)
8. Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
9. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
10. Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)

BEST DIRECTOR (91st)

FINAL PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS

1. ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)

Oscar Record: 6 nominations (as director, writer, producer), with a win for directing Gravity

Pre-Oscar Citations: 
Win, Best Director, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Director, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, New York Film Critics Online
Runner-up, Best Director, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Robert Altman Award for Best Director, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Director, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Director, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Director, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Director, Seattle Film Critics Society
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America (DGA)
Nomination, Best Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

In all the major categories, he's probably the only sure bet for an Oscar win.

2. BRADLEY COOPER (A STAR IS BORN)

Oscar Record: 4 nominations (as producer, actor), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, National Board of Review
Nomination, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America (DGA)
Nomination, Best Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

The Academy loves him, and the film is well-loved, so he's also a sure nominee.

MOST LIKELY

3. SPIKE LEE (BLACKKKLANSMAN)


Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as writer and for documentary feature), with an Honorary Award

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Director, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America (DGA)
Nomination, Best Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

It's CRAZY that Spike Lee has never been nominated in the Best Director category. That will very likely change this year.

POSSIBLE

4. ADAM MCKAY (VICE)


Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing The Big Short

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Director, Detroit Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America (DGA)

The film is probably divisive but the Academy has liked him since The Big Short.

5. RYAN COOGLER (BLACK PANTHER)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Runner-up, Best Director, Utah Film Critics Association

None of the major precursors has nominated him, but if the Academy gets swept in love for the film, which is certainly possible given its SAG nom and its performance in the guilds, then he's in. I just feel he can do it.

6. Peter Farrelly (Green Book)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations: 
Nomination, Best Director-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Director, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, Directors Guild of America (DGA)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Best Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

8. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Director, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle

9. Damien Chazelle (First Man)

Oscar Record: 3 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for directing La La Land

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Best Foreign Language Film

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Director, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Contenders:
Lee Chang-dong (Burning) - Runner-up, Best Director, Toronto Film Critics Association
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed) - Nomination, Best Director, Film Independent Spirit Awards; Runner-up, Best Director, Toronto Film Critics Association; Runner-up, Robert Altman Award for Best Director, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace) - Win, Best Director, Los Angeles Film Critics Association; Win, Best Director, San Diego Film Critics Society
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here) - Win, Best Director, Boston Society of Film Critics

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Damien Chazelle (First Man)
2. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Adam McKay (Backseat/Vice)
4. Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
5. Richard Linklater (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
6. Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
7. Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
8. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
9. Felix van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
10. Terry Gilliam (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)

August Predictions
1. Damien Chazelle (First Man)
2. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
4. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
5. Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
6. Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
7. Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)
8. Felix van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
9. Adam McKay (Backseat/Vice)
10. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

September Predictions
1. Damien Chazelle (First Man)
2. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
3. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
4. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
6. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
7. Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
8. Felix van Groeningen (Beautiful Boy)
9. Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
10. Adam McKay (Backseat/Vice)

October Predictions
1. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
2. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
3. Damien Chazelle (First Man)
4. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
6. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
7. Adam McKay (Vice)
8. Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
9. Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
10. Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

November Predictions
1. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
2. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
3. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
4. Damien Chazelle (First Man)
5. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
6. Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
8. Adam McKay (Vice)
9. Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
10. Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)

November Predictions
1. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
2. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
3. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
4. Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
5. Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
6. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
8. Adam McKay (Vice)
9. Damien Chazelle (First Man)

10. Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)

BEST PICTURE (91st)

FINAL PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS


1. A STAR IS BORN (5 October, Warner Bros.)


Director: Bradley Cooper
Writers: Eri Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, based on a story by William A. Wellman, Robert Carson
Producers: Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor, Jon Peters, Todd Phillips
Cast: Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, Sam Elliott, Dave Chappelle

Plot (IMDb): A musician helps a young singer and actress find fame, even as age and alcoholism send his own career into a downward spiral.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Gala Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Win, Best Film, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

With a showing of 11 out of 12 in the guilds (missing only visual effects, as expected), it's still the favorite coming in, even if it hasn't been performing well in precursors; it has won only for the song "Shallow." Being a cultural zeitgeist and a box office hit, it's undeniable.

2. ROMA (14 December, Netflix)

Director: Alfonso Cuarón
Writer: Alfonso Cuarón
Producers: Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
Cast: Yalitza Aparicio, Marina de Tavira

Plot (IMDb): A story that chronicles a year in the life of a middle-class family in Mexico City in the early 1970s.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Golden Lion, Best Film, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Win, Best Film, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Special Award, American Film Institute
Win, Best Motion Picture-Foreign Language, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Movie, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Film, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Picture, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Seattle Film Critics Society
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Film Not in the English Language, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

It's a very personal story for Alfonso Cuarón, who the Academy has fallen in love with, and for good reason. It has performed quite well in precursors, particularly the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice. If it has anything at all remotely working against it, it's that it's a foreign-language film, which is probably always a handicap in this race.

MOST LIKELY

3. BLACKKKLANSMAN (10 August, Focus Features)

Director: Spike Lee
Writers: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, based on the book by Ron Stallworth
Producers: Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele, Shaun Redick
Cast: John David Washington, Adam Driver, Laura Harrier

Plot (IMDb): Ron Stallworth, an African-American police officer from Colorado, successfully managed to infiltrate the local Ku Klux Klan and became the head of the local chapter.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Grand Prize of the Jury, Cannes Film Festival
Nomination, Palme d'Or, Cannes Film Festival
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

For a while, as the critics were piping in, it seemed to be losing the steam that it picked up in Cannes. But then the major precursors spoke up and proved that this film cannot be ignored. It's the most accessible film of legendary Spike Lee, who is due more Oscar recognition in the competitive categories.

4. BLACK PANTHER (16 February, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Director: Ryan Coogler
Writers: Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, based on comics by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby
Producer: Kevin Feige
Cast: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, Letitia Wright, Winston Duke, Sterling K. Brown, Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, Andy Serkis

Plot (IMDb): T'Challa, the King of Wakanda, rises to the throne in the isolated, technologically advanced African nation, but his claim is challenged by a vengeful outsider who was a childhood victim of T'Challa's father's mistake.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)

At the end of the day, it's a comic book movie. Is the Academy ready to finally give MCU mastermind Kevin Feige a Best Picture nomination, especially in the wake of the introduction of the controversial Best Popular Film category? The SAG nomination for the ensemble is huge, as are the nominations for its screenplay (particularly from the WGA and for the USC Scripter).


5. THE FAVOURITE (23 November, Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
Writers: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Producers: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
Cast: Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, Nicholas Hoult, Joe Alwyn, Mark Gatiss

Plot (IMDb): A bawdy, acerbic tale of royal intrigue, passion, envy and betrayal in the court of Queen Anne in early 18th century England.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Golden Lion, Best Film, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best International Film, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Film, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Film, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)


With all three actresses performing so well, and it being a well-loved costume epic, it's not surprising that it's leading nomination numbers in a lot of precursor races. It might not be everyone's cup of tea, but there's very little chance that such an actor-driven, high-quality film will be left out.

6. GREEN BOOK (21 November, Universal Pictures)

Director: Peter Farrelly
Writers: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Producers: Jim Burke, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
Cast: Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali, Linda Cardellini

Plot (IMDb): A working-class Italian-American bouncer becomes the driver of an African-American classical pianist on a tour of venues through the 1960s American South.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, People's Choice Award, Toronto International Film Festival
Win, Best Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

We know how much the Academy loves actor-driven films, and such warm, inspiring ones at that. It also has staunch defenders in the industry. The controversies surrounding its accuracy probably did not hurt it very much. Peter Farrelly's DGA nomination speaks of strong industry support.

MAYBE


7. VICE (21 December, Annapurna Pictures)

Director: Adam McKay
Writer: Adam McKay
Producers: Will Ferrell, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay, Kevin J. Messick, Brad Pitt
Cast: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Sam Rockwell, Steve Carell, Bill Pullman, Alison Pill

Plot (IMDb): The story of Dick Cheney, the most powerful Vice President in history, and how his policies changed the world as we know it.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)


Critics haven't been too nice about it, but so what? Those wins by Christian Bale and the DGA nomination for Adam McKay show that it has very strong industry support. Is it too political? Many might not be able to stomach it, but it's also a showcase for its actors and might even win Amy Adams her first Oscar.

8. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (2 November, Twentieth Century Fox)

Director: Bryan Singer
Writer: Anthony McCarten
Producers: Jim Beach, Graham King
Cast: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee, Ben Hardy, Joe Mazzello, Aidan Gillen, Allen Leech, Tom Hollander

Plot (IMDb): A chronicle of the years leading up to Queen's legendary appearance at the Live Aid (1985) concert.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

The critics are divided on it and it has a lot of haters, but the industry loves it. Remember how the Globes audience love its two wins? That SAG ensemble nomination also means a lot. I could imagine that many voters will vote it #1 on their ballots. One thing that would make some hesitate to vote for it is that it's like a vote for Bryan Singer. 

POSSIBLE

9. IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (14 December (limited), Annapurna Pictures)

Director: Barry Jenkins
Writer: Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin
Producers: Megan Ellison, Dede Gardner, Barry Jenkins, Jeremy Kleiner, Sara Murphy, Adele Romanski
Cast: KiKi Layne, Stephan James, Regina King, Dave Franco, Pedro Pascal, Finn Wittrock, Diego Luna, Ed Skrein, Colman Domingo

Plot (IMDb): A woman in Harlem desperately scrambles to prove her fiancé innocent of a crime while carrying their first child.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Picture, Boston Society of Film Critics

Those who love it REALLY love it, so a lot of #1 votes will probably go to it. But how many voters have actually seen it? Why did presumed frontrunner Regina King not get a nomination? Still, her wins (she's winning virtually everything) likely helped put the film in the mind of voters. 

10. MARY POPPINS RETURNS (19 December, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Director: Rob Marshall
Writer: David Magee, based on the stories by P.L. Travers
Producers: John DeLuca, Rob Marshall, Marc Platt
Cast: Emily Blunt, Ben Whishaw, Emily Watson, Lin Manuel-Miranda, Dick Van Dyke, Angela Lansbury, Meryl Streep

Plot (IMDb): Decades after her original visit, the magical nanny returns to help the Banks siblings and Michael's children through a difficult time in their lives.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

It's under performing in the precursors given high expectations. I doubt that it will be nominated, but I still consider it a likelier nominee than the others below this list.

11. First Man (12 October, Universal Pictures)

Director: Damien Chazelle
Writer: Josh Singer, based on the book by James R. Hansen
Producers: Marty Bowen, Damien Chazelle, Wyck Godfrey, Ryan Gosling
Cast: Ryan Gosling, Claire Foy, Jon Bernthal, Pablo Schreiber, Kyle Chandler, Jason Clarke, Corey Stoll, Patrick Fugit, Lukas Haas

Plot (IMDb): A look at the life of the astronaut, Neil Armstrong, and the legendary space mission that led him to become the first man to walk on the Moon on July 20, 1969.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Gala Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Nomination, Golden Lion, Best Film, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

12. Eighth Grade (13 July, A24)

Director: Bo Burnham
Writer: Bo Burnham
Producers: Eli Bush, Scott Rudin, Christopher Storer, Lila Yacoub
Cast: Elsie Fisher, Josh Hamilton, Emily Robinson

Plot (IMDb): An introverted teenage girl tries to survive the last week of her disastrous eighth grade year before leaving to start high school.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Grand Jury Prize, Dramatic, Sundance Film Festival
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Win, Best First Film, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Detroit Film Critics Society
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute


13. Crazy Rich Asians (15 August, Warner Bros.)

Director: Jon M. Chu
Writers: Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, based on the book by Kevin Kwan
Producers: Nina Jacobson, John Penotti, Brad Simpson
Cast: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeoh, Gemma Chan, Lisa Lu, Awkwafina, Harry Shum Jr., Ken Jeong, Sonoya Mizuno, Chris Pang, Jimmy O. Yang, Ronny Chieng, Remy Hii, Nico Santos

Plot (IMDb): This contemporary romantic comedy, based on a global bestseller, follows native New Yorker Rachel Chu to Singapore to meet her boyfriend's family.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)

14. A Quiet Place (6 April, Paramount Pictures)

Director: John Krasinski
Writers: Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, John Krasinski
Producers: Michael Bay, Andrew Form, Brad Fuller
Cast: John Krasinski, Emily Blunt, Millicent Simmonds, Noah Jupe

Plot (IMDb): In a post-apocalyptic world, a family is forced to live in silence while hiding from monsters with ultra-sensitive hearing.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute

Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (19 October, Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Marielle Heller
Writers: Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel
Producers: Anne Carey, Amy Nauiokas, David Yarnell
Cast: Melissa McCarthy, Richard E. Grant

Plot (IMDb): When Lee Israel falls out of step with current tastes, she turns her art form to deception. An adaptation of the memoir Can You Ever Forgive Me?, the true story of best-selling celebrity biographer Lee Israel.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review

Other Contenders:
Burning - Runner-up, Best Picture, Toronto Film Critics Association; Runner-up, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
First Reformed - Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Award; Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards; Top 10 Film, National Board of Review; Movie of the Year, American Film Institute; Runner-up, Best Picture, Toronto Film Critics Association
The Hate U Give - Win, Best Film, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Hereditary - Nomination, Best First Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Leave No Trace - Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards; Win, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
The Mule
Paddington 2 - Runner-up, Best Film Indiana Film Journalists Association
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - Win, Best Picture, Utah Film Critics Association
You Were Never Really Here - Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. On the Basis of Sex
4. Backseat (Vice)
5. Beautiful Boy
6. Boy Erased
7. Where'd You Go, Bernadette
8. Black Panther
9. Isle of Dogs
10. Hereditary

August Predictions
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Beautiful Boy
4. Roma
5. Black Panther
6. Eighth Grade
7. A Star is Born
8. The Favourite
9. Boy Erased
10. Backseat (Vice)

September Predictions
1. First Man
2. A Star is Born
3. Roma
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Black Panther
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Beautiful Boy
9. Eighth Grade
10. The Front Runner

October Predictions
1. A Star is Born
2. First Man
3. Roma
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Black Panther
6. The Favourite
7. Green Book
8. BlacKkKlansman
9. Vice
10. Eighth Grade

November Predictions
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. First Man
5. If Beale Street Could Talk
6. Black Panther
7. The Favourite
8. BlacKkKlansman
9. Vice
10. Bohemian Rhapsody

December Predictions
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. Black Panther
4. Green Book
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. The Favourite
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Vice

9. Bohemian Rhapsody
10. Mary Poppins Returns