Sunday, August 05, 2018

PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES (91st)

AUGUST PREDICTIONS

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Beautiful Boy
Roma
Black Panther
Eighth Grade
A Star is Born
The Favourite
Boy Erased
Backseat

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Christian Bale (Backseat)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams (Backseat)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Adam McKay (Backseat)
Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
Paul Schrader (First Reformed)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Josh Singer, based on the book by James R. Hansen (First Man)
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BlacKkKlansman)
Luke Davies, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (Beautiful Boy)
Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, based on characters created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby (Black Panther)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson)
Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (Phil Johnston, Rich Moore)
Smallfoot (Karey Kirkpatrick)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren (First Man)
James Laxton (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)
Dion Beebe (Mary Poppins Returns)
Benoît Delhomme (At Eternity's Gate)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)
Jenny Beavan (The Nutcracker and the Four Realms)

BEST FILM EDITING
Tom Cross (First Man)
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough (Roma)
Hank Corwin (Backseat)
Debbie Berman, Michael P. Shawver (Black Panther)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mary Queen of Scots
Backseat
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
Michel Legrand (The Other Side of the Wind)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
SOON!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria)

BEST SOUND EDITING
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Incredibles 2

BEST SOUND MIXING
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star is Born
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Black Panther
First Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Mortal Engines

Nominations Tally:
Black Panther - 10
First Man - 9
If Beale Street Could Talk - 8
Backseat - 7
Mary Poppins Returns - 6
The Favourite - 5
Beautiful Boy - 4
Boy Erased - 4
Roma - 4
A Star is Born - 4
Eighth Grade - 3
Mary Queen of Scots - 3
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 3
At Eternity's Gate - 2
Avengers: Infinity War - 2
BlacKkKlansman - 2
Incredibles 2 - 2
Isle of Dogs - 2
Ready Player One - 2
First Reformed - 1
Hereditary - 1
Mortal Engines - 1
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 1
On the Basis of Sex - 1
The Other Side of the Wind - 1
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1
Smallfoot - 1
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1
Suspiria - 1
The Wife - 1

TECHNICAL CATEGORIES (91st)

AUGUST PREDICTIONS

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Linus Sandgren (First Man)
2. James Laxton (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)
4. Dion Beebe (Mary Poppins Returns)
5. Benoît Delhomme (At Eternity's Gate)

6. John Mathieson (Mary Queen of Scots)
7. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Suspiria)
8. Robbie Ryan (The Favourite)
9. Gary Graver (The Other Side of the Wind)
10. Rob Hardy (Annihilation)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
2. Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
3. Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)
5. Jenny Beavan (The Nutcracker and the Four Realms)

6. Marci Rodgers (BlacKkKlansman)
7. Giulia Piersanti (Suspiria)
8. Milena Canonero (The Sisters Brothers)
9. Mary Zophres (First Man)
10. Sandy Powell (How to Talk to Girls at Parties)

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Tom Cross (First Man)
2. Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough (Roma)
4. Hank Corwin (Backseat)
5. Debbie Berman, Michael P. Shawver (Black Panther)

6. Bob Murawski, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
7. Eddie Hamilton (Mission: Impossible - Fallout)
8. Jay Cassidy (A Star is Born)
9. (At Eternity's Gate)
10. Nico Leunen (Beautiful Boy)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
1. Mary Queen of Scots
2. Backseat
3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Suspiria
5. The Favourite
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Black Panther
8. A Star is Born
9. How to Talk to Girls at Parties
10. BlacKkKlansman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
2. Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
3. Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
4. Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
5. Michel Legrand (The Other Side of the World)

6. (The Favourite)
7. Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)
8. John Ottman (Bohemian Rhapsody)
9. (Beautiful Boy)
10. Michael Giacchino (Incredibles 2)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
SOON!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
2. James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
3. John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
5. Inbal Weinberg, Christin Busse, Merissa Lombardo (Suspiria)

6. Neil Lamont, David Crossman, Glyn Dillon (Solo: A Star Wars Story)
7. Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (First Man)
8. Stéphane Cressend, Cecile Vatelot (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Grace Yun, Brian Lives (Hereditary)
10. Nelson Coates, Andrew Baseman (Crazy Rich Asians)

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
2. Black Panther
3. Avengers: Infinity War
4. Ready Player One
5. Incredibles 2

6. First Man
7. Mortal Engines
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story
9. Pacific Rim: Uprising
10. Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Mary Poppins Returns
2. A Star is Born
3. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
4. Black Panther
5. First Man

6. Isle of Dogs
7. The Other Side of the Wind
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. Incredibles 2
10. Avengers: Infinity War

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
5. Mortal Engines

6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Annihilation
9. A Wrinkle in Time
10. Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (91st)

AUGUST PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCKS

1. ISLE OF DOGS (23 March, Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Wes Anderson
Writers: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman
Producers: Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales, Scott Rudin
Cast: Bryan Cranston, Koyu Rankin, Edward Norton, Liev Schreiber, Greta Gerwig, Tracy Walker, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Bob Balaban, Scarlett Johansson, Courtney B. Vance, Kunichi Nomura, Tilda Swinton

Plot (IMDb): Set in Japan, Isle of Dogs follows a boy's odyssey in search of his dog.

Pre-Oscars Citations:
Nomination, Golden Berlin Bear, Best Film, Berlin International Film Festival

This could end up being one of the most critically acclaimed films (animated or otherwise) of the year, though there is some controversy (silly, IMO) about the "appropriation" of Japanese culture. A nomination is a pretty sure bet, but a win would be hard because of Incredibles 2.

2. INCREDIBLES 2 (15 June, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Director: Brad Bird
Writer: Brad Bird
Producers: Nicole Paradis Grindle, John Walker
Cast: Holly Hunter, Craig T. Nelson, Samuel L. Jackson, Catherine Keener, Sophia Bush, Jonathan Banks, Bob Odenkirk, Isabella Rossellini, John Ratzenberger, Brad Bird, Sarah Vowell, Huck Milner

Plot (IMDb): Bob Parr (Mr. Incredible) is left to care for Jack-Jack while Helen (Elastigirl) is out saving the world.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Finally, the long-anticipated sequel of the much-loved blockbuster The Incredibles. It has largely wowed audiences and critics, so it can easily win this category over the less mainstream Isle of Dogs.

MOST LIKELY

3. RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET: WRECK-IT-RALPH 2 (21 November, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Directors: Phil Johnston, Rich Moore
Writers: Phil Johnston, Pamela Ribon
Producer: Clark Spencer
Cast: John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Kristen Bell, Taraji P. Henson, Mandy Moore, Auli'l Cravalho, Kelly Macdonald, Allan Tudyk, Ming-Na Wen, Idina Menzel, Ed O'Neill, Jane Lynch, Anika Noni Rose, Jodi Benson

Plot (IMDb): Six years after the events of "Wreck-It Ralph," Ralph and Vanellope, now friends, discover a wi-fi router in their arcade, leading them into a new adventure.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Another sequel of another highly regarded animated film. This looks like it's going to be even more fun, and the addition of the Disney princesses may prove to be irresistible to the voters. This one can even upset.

POSSIBLE

4. SMALLFOOT (28 September, Warner Bros.)

Director: Karey Kirkpatrick
Writers: Glenn Ficarra, Karey Kirkpatrick, Sergio Pablos, John Requa
Producers: Glenn Ficarra, Bonne Radford, John Requa
Cast: Zendaya, Gina Rodriguez, Channing Tatum, Common, Danny DeVito, James Corden

Plot (IMDb): A Yeti is convinced that the elusive creatures known as "humans" really do exist.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

The plot sounds like a lot of fun and probably has not-so-subtle digs at the lack of inclusivity and tolerance in today's society. It's got a pretty mean voice cast, too.

5. SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE (14 December, Columbia Pictures, Sony Pictures Releasing)

Directors: Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
Writer: Phil Lord, based on characters created by Brian Michael Bendis, Steve Ditko, Stan Lee, Sara Pichelli
Producer: Christina Steinberg 
Cast: Shameik Moore, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry, Nicolas Cage, Hailee Steinfeld

Plot (IMDb): Spider-Man crosses parallel dimensions and teams up with the Spider-Men of those dimensions to stop a threat to all reality.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Why not? All things Marvel are hot now, Miles Morales brings major representation, and the trailer looks sick.

6. Early Man (16 February, Lionsgate)

Director: Nick Park
Writers: Mark Burton, James Higginson
Producers: Richard Beek, Peter Lord, Nick Park, Carla Shelley, David Sproxton
Cast: Tom Hiddleston, Eddie Redmayne, Maisie Williams

Plot (IMDb): Set at the dawn of time, when prehistoric creatures and woolly mammoths roamed the earth, Early Man tells the story of Dug, along with sidekick Hognob as they unite his tribe against a mighty enemy Lord Nooth and his Bronze Age City to save their home.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (22 August, Fathom Events)

Director: Masaaki Yuasa
Writer: Makoto Ueda, based on the novel by Tomihiko Morimi
Producers: Junnosuke Itô, Noriko Ozaki
Cast: Gen Hoshino, Kana Hanazawa, Hiroshi Kamiya

Plot (IMDb): The story of the titular girl known only as "Otome" and her insanely long night of partying and drinking-complete with a book fair, festival, and many adventures in between. It is also the story of "Senpai," her upper class man who has been attempting to get closer to her by "coincidentally" running into her again and again. However, on this night, meeting up with her may be the greatest challenge of his life.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. The Grinch (9 November, Universal Pictures)

Directors: Yarrow Cheney, Scott Mosier
Writer: Michael LeSieur, based on the book by Dr. Seuss
Producers: Christopher Melendandri, Scott Mosier
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch

Plot (IMDb): A grumpy Grinch plots to ruin Christmas for the village of Whoville.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (27 July, Warner Bros.)

Directors: Aaron Horvath, Peter Rida Michail
Writers: Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, based on characters created by Bob Haney, Bruno Premiani, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic
Producers: Will Arnett, Peter Rida Michail, Peggy Regan
Cast: Nicolas Cage, Kristen Bell, Halsey, James Corden, Will Arnett, Khary Payton, Tara Strong, Greg Cipes, Hynden Walch, Scott Menville, Lil Yachty

Plot (IMDb): A villain's maniacal plan for world domination sidetracks five teenage superheroes who dream of Hollywood stardom.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Mirai (TBA, GKids)

Director: Mamoru Hosoda
Writers: Mamoru Hosoda
Producers: Yuichi Adachi, Takuya Itô, Genki Kawamura, Yuichiro Sato
Cast: Haru Kuroki, Moka Kamishiraishi, Gen Hoshino

Plot (IMDb): A young boy encounters a magical garden which enables him to travel through time and meet his relatives from different eras, with guidance by his younger sister from the future.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Other Contenders:
The Ark and the Aardvark
Attack on Titan: The Roar of Awakening
Boonie Bears: The Big Shrink
Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer
Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's Treasure Island
Duck, Duck, Goose
Fireworks
Hodja and the Magic Carpet
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Inzomnia
The Legend of Charro Negro
The Legend of Muay Thai: 9 Satra
Lu Over the Wall
Luis and the Aliens
Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms
Marcianos vs. Mexicanos
Marvel Rising: Secret Warriors
Maya the Bee: The Honey Games
Pokémon the Movie: Everyone's Story
Sherlock Gnomes
Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero
Troll: The Tail of a Tail
Uru in Blue
White Fang

"Never Too Early Predictions" (March 2018)
1. Isle of Dogs
2. Incredibles 2
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2
4. The Grinch
5. Smallfoot
6. Early Man
7. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
8. Batman Ninja
9. Teen Titans Go! to the Movies
10. Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero

BEST ADAPTED SCREEPLAY (91st)

AUGUST PREDICTIONS

LIKELY

1. BARRY JENKINS, based on the novel by James Baldwin (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

2. JOSH SINGER, based on the book by James R. Hansen (FIRST MAN)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for writing Spotlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

3. CHARLIE WACHTEL, DAVID RABINOWITZ, KEVIN WILLMOTT, SPIKE LEE, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BLACKKKLANSMAN

Oscar Records:
Wachtel: No nomination
Rabinowitz: No nomination
Willmott: No nomination
Lee: 2 nominations (as writer and for documentary feature), with an Honorary Award

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

4. LUKE DAVIES, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

5. RYAN COOGLER, JOE ROBERT COLE, based on characters created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby (BLACK PANTHER

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

6. Joel Edgerton, based on the book by Garrard Conley (Boy Erased)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, based on a story by William A. Wellman, Robert Carson (A Star is Born)

Oscar Records:
Roth: 4 nominations (as writer), with a win for Forrest Gump
Cooper: 4 nominations (as producer, actor), no win
Fetters: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman, based on the book by Matt Bai (The Front Runner)

Oscar Records:
Bai: No nomination
Carson: No nomination
Reitman: 4 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, based on the comic book by Fabien Nury, Thierry Robin (The Death of Stalin)

Oscar Records:
Nury: No nomination
Iannucci: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Schneider: No nomination
Martin: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Screenplay (Adapted), BAFTA (2017)

10. Debra Granik, based on the novel by Peter Rock (Leave No Trace)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these might displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Kirsten Dunst, Nellie Kim, based on the novel by Sylvia Plath (The Bell Jar)
Steve Zaillian, based on the book by Charles Brandt (The Irishman)
Tony Kushner, based on the novel by David I. Kertzer (The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara)
Janece Shaffer, Colen C. Wiley, based on the novel by Walter Dean Myers (Monster)
Geoffrey Fletcher, based on the magazine article by David Grann (Trial by Fire)

Other Contenders:
Alex Garland, based on the novel by Jeff VanderMeer (Annihilation)
Robin Bissell, based on the book by Osha Gray Davidson (The Best of Enemies)
Isabel Coixet, based on the novel by Penelope Fitzgerald (The Bookshop)
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Robert Rodat, based on the book by Nicholas Dawidoff (The Catcher Was a Spy)
Alex Ross Perry, Allison Schroeder, Tom McCarthy, based on characters created by A.A. Milne (Christopher Robin)
Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, based on the book by Kevin Kwan (Crazy Rich Asians)
Sebastián Lelio, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, based on the novel by Naomi Alderman (Disobedience)
Gus Van Sant, based on the book by John Callahan (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Kristin Hahn, based on the novel by Julie Murphy (Dumplin')
Alice Johnson Boher, Sebastián Lelio, based on original characters by Sebastián Lelio (Gloria)
Brad Bird, based on characters created by Brad Bird (Incredibles 2)
Andrew Haigh, based on the novel by Willy Vlautin (Lean on Pete)
David Magee, based on the books by P.L. Travers (Mary Poppins Returns)
Beau Willimon, based on the book by John Guy (Mary Queen of Scots)
Desiree Akhavan, Cecilia Frugiuele, based on the novel by Emily M. Danforth (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Semi Chellas, based on the book by Lisa Klein (Ophelia)
Arash Amel, based on the magazine article by Marie Brenner (A Private War)
Zak Penn, Ernest Cline, based on the novel by Ernest Cline (Ready Player One)
Jacques Audiard, based on the novel by Patrick Dewitt (The Sisters Brothers)
David Kajganich, based on characters created by Dario Argento, Daria Nicolodi (Suspiria)
Shaun Grant, based on the novel by Peter Carey (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Chanya Button, based on the play by Eileen Atkins (Vita and Virginia)
David Hare, based on the book by Julie Kavanagh (The White Crow)
Jane Anderson, based on the novel by Meg Wolitzer (The Wife)
Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan, based on the novel by Richard Ford (Wildlife)
Lynne Ramsay, based on the book by Jonathan Ames (You Were Never Really Here)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. First Man
3. Where'd You Go, Bernadette
4. Beautiful Boy
5. Black Panther
6. Boy Erased
7. Incredibles 2
8. The Death of Stalin
9. You Were Never Really Here
10. Mary Queen of Scots

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (91st)

AUGUST PREDICTIONS

LIKELY

1. ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)

Oscar Record: 6 nominations (as director, writer, producer, editor) with wins for directing and editing Gravity

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

2. BO BURNHAM (EIGHTH GRADE)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

3. ADAM MCKAY (BACKSEAT)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing The Big Short

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

4. DEBORAH DAVIS, TONY MCNAMARA (THE FAVOURITE)

Oscar Records: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

5. PAUL SCHRADER (FIRST REFORMED)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

6. Jean-Claude Carrière, Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

Oscar Records:
Carrière: 4 nominations (as writer and for live action short), with an Honorary Award
Schnabel: 1 nomination (as director), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)

Oscar Records:
Kodar: No nomination
Welles: 3 nominations (as director, writer, actor), with a win for writing Citizen Kane

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Mike Leigh (Peterloo)

Oscar Record: 7 nominations (as director, writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman (Isle of Dogs)

Oscar Records:
Anderson: 6 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win
Coppola: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Nomura: No nomination
Schwartzman: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Diablo Cody (Tully)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for writing Juno

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these might displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Andrew Heckler (Burden)
Sarah Ruhl (My Life On the Road)
Bryce Kass (Lizzie)
David Gordon Green (Newsflash)

Other Contenders:
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Ethan Hawke, Sybil Rosen (Blaze)
Justin Haythe, Anthony McCarten (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Ian McEwan (The Children Act)
Richard Glatzer, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Wash Westmoreland (Colette)
Marcus Hinchey (Come Sunday)
David Zellner, Nathan Zellner (Damsel)
Xavier Dolan, Jacob Tierney (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Phil Hay, Matt Manfredi (Destroyer)
David Auburn (Georgetown)
Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga (Green Book)
Rupert Everett (The Happy Prince)
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Claire Denis, Jean-Pol Fargeau, Nick Laird, Zadie Smith (High Life)
Lars von Trier (The House That Jack Built)
Mike Makowsky (I Think We're Alone Now)
Scott Z. Burns (The Mercy)
Lone Scherfig (New York Winter Palace)
Paul Greengrass, Åsne Seierstad (Norway)
Daniel Stiepleman (On the Basis of Sex)
Matthew Orton (Operation Finale)
David Mackenzie (Outlaw King)
Sally Potter (The Party)
Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)
Oren Moverman (Puzzle)
Terrence Malick (Radegund)
Woody Allen (A Rainy Day in New York)
Lindsay Shapero (Red Joan)
Aneesh Chaganty, Sev Ohanian (Search)
Steven Knight (Serenity)
Taylor Sheridan (Sicario 2: Soldado)
Crystal Moselle, Jen Silverman, Aslihan Unaldi (Skate Kitchen)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Jeff Pope (Stan and Ollie)
Steven McGregor, David Tranter (Sweet Country)
David Robert Mitchell (Under the Silver Lake)
Behn Zeitlin (Wendy)
Elizabeth Chomko (What They Had)
Darci Picoult (Where Is Kyra?)
Logan Miller, Noah Miller, Andy Weiss, Steve Kloves, Scott Silver (White Boy Rick)
Steven Knight (Woman Walks Ahead)
Caroline Thompson, Robert Zemeckis (The Women of Marwen)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Backseat
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Tully
4. On the Basis of Sex
5. The Other Side of the Wind
6. Private Life
7. The Women of Marwen
8. Hereditary
9. The Mercy
10. Unsane

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (91st)

AUGUST PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. AMY ADAMS (BACKSEAT)

Role: Lynne Cheney, wife of Dick Cheney

Oscar Record: 5 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Putting on prostheses and playing the wife of a powerful political figure might just be the role that gets semi-regular nominee Amy Adams her first Oscar, two years after she barely missed a nomination for Arrival. She's well loved by the Academy, to be sure. A nomination is likely, at least, if the politics don't get in the way.

2. CLAIRE FOY (FIRST MAN)

Role: Janet Shearon, first wife of Neil Armstrong

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Claire Foy's isn't a household name in cinema yet, with most of the praise going her way via her work on TV's "The Crown." But she was given strong reviews for her performance in last year's Breathe. Being the biopic that this is, and one about Neil Armstrong at that, this one's an easy call. If that trailer is any indication, she'll be doing so much more than the usual "suffering wife" schtick in this category. She's a threat to Adams, no doubt, especially given the front runner status of the film itself.

MAYBE

3. NICOLE KIDMAN (BOY ERASED)

Role: Nancy Conley, mother of a young man who gets sent to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Her last Oscar nomination was for portraying a warm, loving mother in Lion. This year, she might get nominated for playing a different type of mother. Her transformative look alone might land her a nomination. But the last time she played nasty in The Paperboy, the Academy ignored her, so the voters might like their Nicole Kidman less icy. Still, the trailer suggests that the motherly love puts up a fight.

4. REGINA KING (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Role: Sharon Rivers, mother of a woman in a race to prove her fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Even before the quietly beautiful trailer of If Beale Street Could Talk came out, everyone knew that Regina King had netted an Oscar bait role. It's about time, as she's been churning out strong performances in both film and television. The right role, in what may be a huge Oscar player, may have finally come for her.

POSSIBLE

5. OLIVIA COLMAN (THE FAVOURITE)

Role: Queen Anne, over whose affection and favor two cousins fight

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

If the trailer is any indication, the ever fantastic Olivia Colman has a gem of a role in her hands. Strong, acerbic, and funny: characters that director Yorgos Lanthimos is great at bringing out in his actors. This is one of the more exciting prospects in this category. If she and the film deliver, and especially if she shines in the presence of previous Oscar winners Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, she's a sure deal.

6. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

Role: Queen Elizabeth I

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

Role: Madam Blanc, vice-directress of a dark and mysterious dance academy

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Michael Clayton

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)

Role: Karen Barbour, step-mother to a teen addicted to meth

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)

Role: Oletha "Lee" Heart, wife of disgraced senator Gary Hart

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

Role: Eleanor Young, disapproving mother of rich bachelor Nick Young

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these might displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Jennifer Aniston (Dumplin')
Gemma Arterton (Vita and Virginia)
Laura Dern (Trial By Fire)
Andrea Riseborough (Burden)
Kristen Stewart (Lizzie)
Naomi Watts (Ophelia)

Other Contenders:
Nina Arianda (Stan and Ollie)
Patricia Arquette (The Bell Jar)
Kathy Bates (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Kathy Bates (On the Basis of Sex)
Juliette Binoche (High Life)
Lina Cardellini (Green Book)
Kayli Carter (Private Life)
Patricia Clarkson (The Bookshop)
Patricia Clarkson (The Party)
Blythe Danner (What They Had)
Essie Davis (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Adèle Exarchopoulos (The White Crow)
Taissa Farmiga (What They Had)
Mia Goth (High Life)
Rebecca Hall (A Rainy Day in New York)
Laura Harrier (BlacKkKlansman)
Anne Hathaway (Serenity)
Shirley Henderson (Stan and Ollie)
Jennifer Hudson (Monster)
Cherry Jones (The Party)
Carol Kane (The Sisters Brothers)
Zoe Kazan (New York Winter Palace)
Riley Keough (Under the Silver Lake)
Mélanie Laurent (Operation Finale)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (White Boy Rick)
Rooney Mara (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Tatiana Maslany (Destroyer)
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Emily Mortimer (The Party)
Anna Paquin (The Irishman)
Maxine Peake (Peterloo)
Bel Powley (The Bell Jar)
Bel Powley (White Boy Rick)
Vanessa Redgrave (Georgetown)
Haley Lu Richardson (Operation Finale)
Susan Sarandon (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
Chloë Sevigny (Lean on Pete)
Amanda Seyfried (First Reformed)
Molly Shannon (Private Life)
Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
Uma Thurman (The House That Jack Built)
Jeanne Tripplehorn (Gloria)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Mercy)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
2. Amy Adams (Backseat)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
5. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
6. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
7. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)
8. Rachel Weisz (The Mercy)
9. Saoirse Ronan (The Seagull)
10. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)