Wednesday, January 23, 2019

BEST PICTURE (91st)

BLACK PANTHER (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Director: Ryan Coogler
Writers: Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, based on comics by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby
Producer: Kevin Feige
Cast: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, Letitia Wright, Winston Duke, Sterling K. Brown, Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, Andy Serkis

Plot (IMDb): T'Challa, the King of Wakanda, rises to the throne in the isolated, technologically advanced African nation, but his claim is challenged by a vengeful outsider who was a childhood victim of T'Challa's father's mistake.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)

Other Oscar Nominations (7 total):
Costume Design
Music (Original Score)
Music (Original Song)
Production Design
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

BLACKKKLANSMAN (Focus Features)
Director: Spike Lee
Writers: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, based on the book by Ron Stallworth
Producers: Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele, Shaun Redick
Cast: John David Washington, Adam Driver, Laura Harrier

Plot (IMDb): Ron Stallworth, an African-American police officer from Colorado, successfully managed to infiltrate the local Ku Klux Klan and became the head of the local chapter.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Grand Prize of the Jury, Cannes Film Festival
Nomination, Palme d'Or, Cannes Film Festival
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (6 total):
Directing
Actor in a Supporting Role
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Film Editing
Music (Original Score)

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (Twentieth Century Fox)
Director: Bryan Singer
Writer: Anthony McCarten
Producers: Jim Beach, Graham King
Cast: Rami Malek, Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee, Ben Hardy, Joe Mazzello, Aidan Gillen, Allen Leech, Tom Hollander

Plot (IMDb): A chronicle of the years leading up to Queen's legendary appearance at the Live Aid (1985) concert.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (5 total):
Actor in a Leading Role
Film Editing
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

THE FAVOURITE (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
Writers: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Producers: Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
Cast: Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, Nicholas Hoult, Joe Alwyn, Mark Gatiss

Plot (IMDb): A bawdy, acerbic tale of royal intrigue, passion, envy and betrayal in the court of Queen Anne in early 18th century England.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Golden Lion, Best Film, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best International Film, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Film, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Film, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Phoenix Critics Circle
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (10 total):
Directing
Actress in a Leading Role
Actress in a Supporting Role (2)
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Cinematography
Costume Design
Film Editing
Production Design

GREEN BOOK (Universal Pictures)
Director: Peter Farrelly
Writers: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Producers: Jim Burke, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
Cast: Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali, Linda Cardellini

Plot (IMDb): A working-class Italian-American bouncer becomes the driver of an African-American classical pianist on a tour of venues through the 1960s American South.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, People's Choice Award, Toronto International Film Festival
Win, Best Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Nevada Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (5 total):
Actor in a Leading Role
Actor in a Supporting Role
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Film Editing

ROMA (Netflix)
Director: Alfonso Cuarón
Writer: Alfonso Cuarón
Producers: Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
Cast: Yalitza Aparicio, Marina de Tavira

Plot (IMDb): A story that chronicles a year in the life of a middle-class family in Mexico City in the early 1970s.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Golden Lion, Best Film, Venice Film Festival
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Special Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Win, Best Film, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Special Award, American Film Institute
Win, Best Motion Picture-Foreign Language, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Movie, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Film, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Film, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Runner-up, Best Picture, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Seattle Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Best Film Not in the English Language, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (10 total):
Directing
Actress in a Leading Role
Actress in a Supporting Role
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Foreign Language Film
Cinematography
Production Design
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing

A STAR IS BORN (Warner Bros.)
Director: Bradley Cooper
Writers: Eri Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, based on a story by William A. Wellman, Robert Carson
Producers: Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor, Jon Peters, Todd Phillips
Cast: Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, Sam Elliott, Dave Chappelle

Plot (IMDb): A musician helps a young singer and actress find fame, even as age and alcoholism send his own career into a downward spiral.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, People's Choice Award, Gala Presentations, Toronto International Film Festival
Top 10 Film, National Board of Review
Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
Win, Best Film, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

Other Oscar Nominations (8 total):
Actor in a Leading Role
Actress in a Leading Role
Actor in a Supporting Role
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Cinematography
Music (Original Song)
Sound Mixing

VICE (Annapurna Pictures)
Director: Adam McKay
Writer: Adam McKay
Producers: Will Ferrell, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay, Kevin J. Messick, Brad Pitt
Cast: Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Sam Rockwell, Steve Carell, Bill Pullman, Alison Pill

Plot (IMDb): The story of Dick Cheney, the most powerful Vice President in history, and how his policies changed the world as we know it.

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America (PGA)

Other Oscar Nominations (8):
Directing
Actor in a Leading Role
Actor in a Supporting Role
Actress in a Supporting Role
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Film Editing
Makeup and Hairstyling

PREDICTION SCORES:
"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018) - 2/8 (Vice, Black Panther)
August Predictions - 4/8 (Roma, Black Panther, A Star is Born, The Favourite)
September Predictions - 5/8 (A Star is Born, Roma, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite)
October Predictions - 6/8 (A Star is Born, Roma, Black Panther, The Favourite, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman)
November Predictions - 6/8 (A Star is Born, Roma, Green Book, Black Panther, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman)
December Predictions - 7/8 (A Star is Born, Roma, Black Panther, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Vice)
Final Predictions (January 2019) - 8/8

WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: Roma
MIGHT UPSET: BlacKkKlansman
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Isle of Dogs, Hereditary, If Beale Street Could Talk, 
Eighth Grade, First Man, Suspiria

11 comments:

Debby said...

Hey Ron,

Your list totally matches mine, for the first six any way.

goog job.

I like the new look.

Ron said...

Thanks!

ADRIAN said...

Why is there such a fuss for predicting the oscars for next year???

Ron Cruz said...

It's just a hobby, Adrian.

Anonymous said...

My ten nominees, from most likely to win to least likely:
1. Precious
2. Invictus
3. Up in the Air
4. Hurt Locker
5. Bright Star
6. An Education
7. A Serious Man
8. Nine
9. Lovely Bones
10. I don't know about who the last nominee is.

Andrew R. said...

WILL WIN: Either Hurt Locker or Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Hurt Locker or Precious
SNUBBED: Invictus, Where the Wild Things Are

(You liked Antichrist that much? Ugh, that film was gross and poorly written. But great acting.)

Anonymous said...

That's very interesting --- it looks like you picked up on a very important part of the film that hasn't been addressed in my other reading regarding this film.
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moonlessjoe said...

you can watch all these movies on http://www.diablorojo.info

I watch them all, and the hurt locker should have won.

Avatar was nothing more that dances with wolves in space. Other were good movies but not worth best picture

Andrew R. said...

OK, for 2010, I think that Harry Potter 7 Part 1 (or Part 2 for 2011!) has a bigger chance than you think. They are going to have to acknowledge the series.

Chloe is already out.

My Top 16, alphabetically:

Black Swan:
PROS: He's due, especially after the Requiem/Fountain/Wrestler snubs. Pi too. Good cast.
CONS: Well, if Requiem couldn't get nominated...

Blue Valentine:
PROS: Early buzz, Weinstein's campaigning, Gosling is due
CONS: Weinstein's campaigning, very indie

Ghost Writer:
PROS: Sympathy for Polanski.
CONS: Hatred for Polanski, early release, it's no Chinatown.

Harry Potter 7 Part 1:
PROS: Series is due for recognition, only series of 6 to be consistent (well, the last 5 Saw films were consistently bad)
CONS: There's the 2nd half, too kiddy and fantasy according to AMPAS. Never gets Visual Effects nominations.

Inception:
PROS: Nolan. And of course, DARK KNIGHT'S SNUB. ARGH. Great cast.
CONS: Very little info. Leo never wins. Nolan hasn't been nominated.

It's Kind of a Funny Story:
PROS: The source material is Academy-style funny. (Reitman-esque humor).
CONS: Cast is a bit iffy. Comedy isn't their thing. Young adult oriented, and that's a no-no.

Kids are All Right:
PROS: Bening and Moore are due, early as hell buzz, Sundance viewers loved it.
CONS: Too early buzz. Also, Brokeback.

Rabbit Hole:
PROS: Cast. The plot is the kind they love.
CONS: Naughty sounding title, very little info.

Scott Pilgrim vs The World:
PROS: Cera is a great actor, good source material.
CONS: Superbad couldn't get nominated, it's a comedy, the girlfriend reminds me of Clementine from Eternal Sunshine, which wasn't nominated. Might flop.

Shutter Island:
PROS: Scorsese and Leo.
CONS: Not a Goodfellas, Leo never wins. Early release.

Somewhere:
PROS: S. Coppola is 3 for 3. She's due.
CONS: Virgin Suicides couldn't get nominated for Screenplay, Bigelow may have won but women are still struggling. Also, little info.

Toy Story 3:
PROS: With Up + 10 slots + Pixar, it's very likely.
CONS: It's STILL animated, and other animators (Miyazaki, Disney, Dreamworks, some indie animator...) deserve a chance. Spread the love.

Twelve:
PROS: Very strong source.
CONS: They're iffy about drug movies and I want to kill whoever casted Chase Crawford.

Tree of Life:
PROS: He's due.
CONS: He can't get nominated.

True Grit:
PROS: Bridges just won and it got John Wayne an Oscar. Coen Bros are on a roll.
CONS: Remake.

Winter's Bone:
PROS: Sundance winner. Could pull a Precious.
CONS: Dark, an acting vehicle.

Ron Cruz said...

Cool list, thanks! As for HP7, I'm feeling slightly more confident about Part 2 (more epic), though Part 1 has a more Oscar-friendly release date (November) and a fair share of drama between the three leads. So maybe. It would certainly be fun to see it nom'd for Best Pic.

Ryonymous said...
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