Wednesday, April 29, 2020

BEST PICTURE (93rd)

MOST LIKELY

1. WEST SIDE STORY (18 December 2020, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Status: Post-production

Director: Steven Spielberg
Producers: Kristie Macosko Krieger, Kevin McCollum, Steven Spielberg
Writer: Tony Kushner, based on the musical by Arthur Laurents
Cast: Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler, Rita Moreno, Corey Stoll, Maddie Ziegler, Brian d'Arcy James, Talia Ryder, Jamie Harris

Plot (IMDb): An adaptation of the 1957 musical, West Side Story explores forbidden love and the rivalry between the Jets and the Sharks, two teenage street gangs of different ethnic backgrounds.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

2. MANK (TBA 2020, Netflix)

Status: Post-production

Director: David Fincher
Producers: Ceán Chaffin, David Fincher, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski
Writer: Jack Fincher
Cast: Tom Pelphrey, Lily Collins, Amanda Seyfried, Gary Oldman, Tuppence Middleton, Charles Dance, Leven Rambin, Tom Burke

Plot (IMDb): Follows screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz's tumultuous development of Orson Welles' iconic masterpiece Citizen Kane.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

3. DA 5 BLOODS (TBA 2020, Netflix)

Status: Completed

Director: Spike Lee
Producers: Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin
Writers: Matthew Billingsly, Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Spike Lee, Kevin Willmott
Cast: Chadwick Boseman, Paul Walter Hauser, Jean Reno, Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters

Plot (IMDb): A group of veterans from the Vietnam War return to the jungle to find their lost innocence.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

4. THE FRENCH DISPATCH (16 October 2020, Searchlight Pictures)

Status: Completed

Director: Wes Anderson
Producers: Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales
Writers: Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness
Cast: Timothée Chalamet, Saoirse Ronan, Elisabeth Moss, Léa Seydoux, Edward Norton, Tilda Swinton, Rupert Friend, Willem Dafoe, Christoph Waltz, Adrien Brody, Benicio del Toro, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Jeffrey Wright, Liev Schreiber, Frances McDormand, Anjelica Huston

Plot (IMDb): A love letter to journalists set in an outpost of an American newspaper in a fictional twentieth century French city that brings to life a collection of stories published in "The French Dispatch Magazine."

Pre-Oscar Citations: None 

LIKELY

5. NEXT GOAL WINS (TBA 2020, Searchlight Pictures)

Status: Post-production

Director: Taika Waititi
Producers: Garrett Basch, Mike Brett, Jonathan Cavendish, Steve Jamison
Writers: Iain Morris, Taika Waititi, based on the documentary by Mike Brett, Steve Jamison
Cast: Elisabeth Moss, Armie Hammer, Michael Fassbender, Frankie Adams

Plot (IMDb): Adaptation of the 2014 British documentary. The story of the American Samoa soccer team, who suffered the worst loss in World Cup history, losing to Australia 31-0 in 2001.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

6. NOMADLAND (TBA 2020, Searchlight Pictures)

Status: Post-production

Director: Chloé Zhao
Producers: Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Chloé Zhao
Writer: Chloé Zhao, based on the book by Jessica Bruder
Cast: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn

Plot (IMDb): A woman in her sixties who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

MAYBE

7. DUNE (18 December 2020, Warner Bros.)

Status: Post-production

Director: Denis Villeneuve
Producers: Cale Boyter, Joseph M. Caracciolo Jr., Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
Writers: Eric Roth, Denis Villenueve, Jon Spaihts, based on the novel by Frank Herbert
Cast: Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Zendaya, Dave Bautista, Jason Momoa, Josh Brolin, Oscar Isaac, Stellan Skarsgård, Javier Bardem, Stephen McKinely Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, David Dastmalchian, Sharon Duncan-Brewster, Chen Chang

Plot (IMDb): Feature adaptation of Frank Herbert's science fiction novel, about the son of a noble family entrusted with the protection of the most valuable asset and most vital element in the galaxy.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

8. HILLBILLY ELEGY (November 2020, Netflix)

Status: Completed

Director: Ron Howard
Producers: Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Erica Huggins, Karen Lunder
Writer: Vanessa Taylor, based on the book by J.D. Vance
Cast: Amy Adams, Haley Bennett, Freida Pinto, Glenn Close, Sunny Mabrey, Bo Hopkins, Gabriel Basso

Plot (IMDb): A man recalls his life growing up in the Midwest with Appalachian values.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

POSSIBLE

9. TENET (17 July 2020, Warner Bros.)

Status: Completed

Director: Christopher Nolan
Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
Writer: Christopher Nolan
Cast: Elisabeth Debicki, Robert Pattinson, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Kenneth Branagh, Michael Caine, John David Washington

Plot (IMDb): An action epic revolving around international espionage, time travel, and evolution. Possibly about a man trying to prevent World War 3 through time travel and rebirth.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

10. NEWS OF THE WORLD (25 December 2020, Universal Pictures)

Status: Post-production

Director: Paul Greengrass
Producers: Elizabeth Gabler, Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Tom Hanks, Gail Mutrux
Writer: Luke Davies, based on the novel by Paulette Jiles
Cast: Tom Hanks, Neil Sandilands, Helena Zengel, Chukwudi Iwuji

Plot (IMDb): A Texan traveling across the wild West bringing the news of the world to local townspeople, agrees to help rescue a young girl who was kidnapped.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

11. On the Rocks (TBA 2020, A24)

Status: Post-production

Director: Sofia Coppola
Producers: Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Mark Levinson
Writer: Sofia Coppola
Cast: Rashida Jones, Jessica Henwick, Bill Murray, Jenny Slate, Marlon Wayans

Plot (IMDb): A young mother who reconnects with her larger-than-life playboy father on an adventure through New York.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

12. The Father (TBA 2020, Sony Pictures Classics)

Status: Completed

Director: Florian Zeller
Producers: Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, Victor Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone
Writers: Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
Cast: Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman, Olivia Williams, Rufus Sewell, Evie Wray, Mark Gatiss, Imogen Poots, Ayesha Dharker

Plot (IMDb): A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

13. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2 October 2020, Paramount Pictures)

Status: Post-production

Director: Aaron Sorkin
Producers: Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson
Writer: Aaron Sorkin
Cast: Eddie Redmayne, Alex Sharp, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jeremy Strong, John Carroll Lynch, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Rylance, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ben Shenkman, J.C. MacKenzie, Frank Langella

Plot (IMDb): The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (TBA 2020, Searchlight Pictures)

Status: Post-production

Director: Michael Showalter
Producers: Kelly Carmichael, Jessica Chastain, Gigi Pritzker, Rachel Shane
Writer: Abe Sylvia
Cast: Jessica Chastain, Andrew Garfield, Vincent D'Onofrio, Cherry Jones

Plot (IMDb): An intimate look at the extraordinary rise, fall and redemption of televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

15. Ammonite (TBA 2020, Neon)

Status: Post-production

Director: Francis Lee
Producers: Iain Canning, Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly, Emile Sherman
Writer: Francis Lee
Cast: Saoirse Ronan, Kate Winslet, Fiona Show, Gemma Jones

Plot (IMDb): 1840s England, an infamous fossil hunter and a young woman sent to convalesce by the sea develop an intense relationship, altering both of their lives forever.

Pre-Oscar Citations: None

Other Contenders:
Annette
Bad Education
Benedetta
Bergman Island
BIOS
Blonde
The Boys in the Band
Burden
The Devil All the Time
Dream Horse
Falling
The 40-Year-Old Version
French Exit
The Glorias
The Green Knight
I'm Thinking of Ending Things
The Last Planet
The Last Thing He Wanted
Let Them All Talk
Lost Girls
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Memoria
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Mulan
The Nest
Nine Days
Passing
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Prisoner 760
Radioactive
Respect
Shirley
Stillwater
Three Floors
True History of the Kelly Gang
Wendy
The Woman in the Window
Worth
Untitled Lila Neugebauer Project

Probably moved to 2021:
In the Heights
King Richard
The Last Duel
Macbeth
Nightmare Alley
The Prom

11 comments:

Debby said...

Hey Ron,

Your list totally matches mine, for the first six any way.

goog job.

I like the new look.

evermoon said...

Thanks!

Adrian Mendizabal said...

Why is there such a fuss for predicting the oscars for next year???

evermoon said...

It's just a hobby, Adrian.

Anonymous said...

My ten nominees, from most likely to win to least likely:
1. Precious
2. Invictus
3. Up in the Air
4. Hurt Locker
5. Bright Star
6. An Education
7. A Serious Man
8. Nine
9. Lovely Bones
10. I don't know about who the last nominee is.

Andrew R. said...

WILL WIN: Either Hurt Locker or Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Hurt Locker or Precious
SNUBBED: Invictus, Where the Wild Things Are

(You liked Antichrist that much? Ugh, that film was gross and poorly written. But great acting.)

Anonymous said...

That's very interesting --- it looks like you picked up on a very important part of the film that hasn't been addressed in my other reading regarding this film.
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moonlessjoe said...

you can watch all these movies on http://www.diablorojo.info

I watch them all, and the hurt locker should have won.

Avatar was nothing more that dances with wolves in space. Other were good movies but not worth best picture

Andrew R. said...

OK, for 2010, I think that Harry Potter 7 Part 1 (or Part 2 for 2011!) has a bigger chance than you think. They are going to have to acknowledge the series.

Chloe is already out.

My Top 16, alphabetically:

Black Swan:
PROS: He's due, especially after the Requiem/Fountain/Wrestler snubs. Pi too. Good cast.
CONS: Well, if Requiem couldn't get nominated...

Blue Valentine:
PROS: Early buzz, Weinstein's campaigning, Gosling is due
CONS: Weinstein's campaigning, very indie

Ghost Writer:
PROS: Sympathy for Polanski.
CONS: Hatred for Polanski, early release, it's no Chinatown.

Harry Potter 7 Part 1:
PROS: Series is due for recognition, only series of 6 to be consistent (well, the last 5 Saw films were consistently bad)
CONS: There's the 2nd half, too kiddy and fantasy according to AMPAS. Never gets Visual Effects nominations.

Inception:
PROS: Nolan. And of course, DARK KNIGHT'S SNUB. ARGH. Great cast.
CONS: Very little info. Leo never wins. Nolan hasn't been nominated.

It's Kind of a Funny Story:
PROS: The source material is Academy-style funny. (Reitman-esque humor).
CONS: Cast is a bit iffy. Comedy isn't their thing. Young adult oriented, and that's a no-no.

Kids are All Right:
PROS: Bening and Moore are due, early as hell buzz, Sundance viewers loved it.
CONS: Too early buzz. Also, Brokeback.

Rabbit Hole:
PROS: Cast. The plot is the kind they love.
CONS: Naughty sounding title, very little info.

Scott Pilgrim vs The World:
PROS: Cera is a great actor, good source material.
CONS: Superbad couldn't get nominated, it's a comedy, the girlfriend reminds me of Clementine from Eternal Sunshine, which wasn't nominated. Might flop.

Shutter Island:
PROS: Scorsese and Leo.
CONS: Not a Goodfellas, Leo never wins. Early release.

Somewhere:
PROS: S. Coppola is 3 for 3. She's due.
CONS: Virgin Suicides couldn't get nominated for Screenplay, Bigelow may have won but women are still struggling. Also, little info.

Toy Story 3:
PROS: With Up + 10 slots + Pixar, it's very likely.
CONS: It's STILL animated, and other animators (Miyazaki, Disney, Dreamworks, some indie animator...) deserve a chance. Spread the love.

Twelve:
PROS: Very strong source.
CONS: They're iffy about drug movies and I want to kill whoever casted Chase Crawford.

Tree of Life:
PROS: He's due.
CONS: He can't get nominated.

True Grit:
PROS: Bridges just won and it got John Wayne an Oscar. Coen Bros are on a roll.
CONS: Remake.

Winter's Bone:
PROS: Sundance winner. Could pull a Precious.
CONS: Dark, an acting vehicle.

evermoon said...

Cool list, thanks! As for HP7, I'm feeling slightly more confident about Part 2 (more epic), though Part 1 has a more Oscar-friendly release date (November) and a fair share of drama between the three leads. So maybe. It would certainly be fun to see it nom'd for Best Pic.

Ryonymous said...
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