Wednesday, December 20, 2017

BEST PICTURE 2018

DECEMBER PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Martin McDonagh
Writers: Martin McDonagh
Producers: Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh
Cast: Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, Woody Harrelson

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, People's Choice Award, Toronto International Film Festival
Win, Best Picture, Nevada Film Critics Society 
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute

Win, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

2. LADY BIRD (A24)

Director: Greta Gerwig
Writer: Greta Gerwig
Producers: Eli Bush, Evelyn O'Neill, Scott Rudin
Cast: Saoirse Ronan, Laurie Metcalf, Timothée Chalamet, Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Picture, National Society of Film Critics

Win, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

LIKELY

3. GET OUT (Universal Pictures)

Director: Jordan Peele
Writer: Jordan Peele
Producers: Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
Cast: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, Catherine Keener

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Boston Online Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, San Diego Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Southeastern Film Critics Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

4. DUNKIRK (Warner Bros.)

Director: Christopher Nolan
Writers: Christopher Nolan
Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
Cast: Fionn Whitehead, Barry Keoghan, Tom Hardy, Mark Rylance, Kenneth Branagh

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Florida Film Critics Circle
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

5. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Pictures Classics)

Director: Luca Guadagnino
Writer: James Ivory, based on the book by André Aciman
Producers: Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Marco Morabito, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears, Rodrigo Teixeira
Cast: Timothée Chalamet, Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg, Amira Casar

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Win, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

6. THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Director: Guillermo del Toro
Writers: Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Producers: J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro
Cast: Sally Hawkins, Octavia Spencer, Richard Jenkins, Michael Shannon, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Golden Lion, Venice Film Festival
Win, Best Picture, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Picture, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

MAYBE

7. THE POST (Twentieth Century Fox)

Director: Steven Spielberg
Writers: Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg
Cast: Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep, Sarah Paulson, Bob Odenkirk, Tracy Letts, Bradley Whitford, Bruce Greenwood

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, National Board of Review
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Drama, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

8. THE FLORIDA PROJECT (A24)

Director: Sean Baker
Writers: Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch
Producers: Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch, Kevin Chinoy, Andrew Duncan, Alex Saks, Francesca Silvestri, Shih-Ching Tsou
Cast: Willem Dafoe, Brooklynn Prince

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Picture, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Picture, San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Picture, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Feature, Gotham Independent Film Awards
Nomination, Best Feature, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)

POSSIBLE

9. DARKEST HOUR (Focus Features)

Director: Joe Wright
Writer: Anthony McCarten
Producers: Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
Cast: Gary Oldman, Kristin Scott Thomas, Lily James, Ben Mendelsohn

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Best Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)
Nomination, Outstanding British Film, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

10. PHANTOM THREAD (Focus Features)

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Writer: Paul Thomas Anderson
Producers: Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, Daniel Lupi, JoAnne Sellar
Cast: Daniel Day Lewis, Vicky Krieps, Lesley Manville

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, Boston Society of Film Critics

11. Mudbound (Netflix)

Director: Dee Rees
Writers: Virgil Williams, Dee Rees based on the novel by Hillary Jordan
Producers: Carl Effenson, Sally Jo Effenson, Cassian Elwes, Charles D. King, Christopher Lemole, Kim Roth, Tim Zajaros
Cast: Garrett Hedlund, Carey Mulligan, Jason Clarke, Jonathan Banks, Rob Morgan, Mary J. Blige, Jason Mitchell

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Picture, New York Film Critics Online
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild

12. The Big Sick (Amazon Studios)

Director: Michael Showalter
Writers: Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel
Cast: Kumail Nanjiani, Zoe Kazan, Ray Romano, Holly Hunter

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, Best Picture, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics' Choice Awards)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

13. Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)

Director: Patty Jenkins
Writer: Allan Heinberg, based on characters created by William Moulton Marston
Producers: Deborah Snyder, Zach Snyder, Richard Suckle
Cast: Gal Gadot, Chris Pine, Connie Nielsen, Robin Wright, Danny Huston, David Thewlis

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Movie of the Year, American Film Institute
Nomination, The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures, Producers Guild of America

14. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)

Director: Rian Johnson
Writer: Rian Johnson, based on characters created by George Lucas
Producers: Ram Bergman, Kathleen Kennedy
Cast: Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, Adam Driver, Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Andy Serkis, Lupita Nyong'o

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

15. The Greatest Showman (Twentieth Century Fox)


Director: Michael Gracey
Writers: Jenny Bicks, Bill Condon
Producers: Peter Chernin, Laurence Mark, Jenno Topping
Cast: Hugh Jackman, Michelle Williams, Zac Efron, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globe Awards)

11 comments:

Debby said...

Hey Ron,

Your list totally matches mine, for the first six any way.

goog job.

I like the new look.

Ron said...

Thanks!

ADRIAN said...

Why is there such a fuss for predicting the oscars for next year???

Ron Cruz said...

It's just a hobby, Adrian.

Andrew R. said...

My ten nominees, from most likely to win to least likely:
1. Precious
2. Invictus
3. Up in the Air
4. Hurt Locker
5. Bright Star
6. An Education
7. A Serious Man
8. Nine
9. Lovely Bones
10. I don't know about who the last nominee is.

Andrew R. said...

WILL WIN: Either Hurt Locker or Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Hurt Locker or Precious
SNUBBED: Invictus, Where the Wild Things Are

(You liked Antichrist that much? Ugh, that film was gross and poorly written. But great acting.)

KoOorA2DaY said...

That's very interesting --- it looks like you picked up on a very important part of the film that hasn't been addressed in my other reading regarding this film.
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moonlessjoe said...

you can watch all these movies on http://www.diablorojo.info

I watch them all, and the hurt locker should have won.

Avatar was nothing more that dances with wolves in space. Other were good movies but not worth best picture

Andrew R. said...

OK, for 2010, I think that Harry Potter 7 Part 1 (or Part 2 for 2011!) has a bigger chance than you think. They are going to have to acknowledge the series.

Chloe is already out.

My Top 16, alphabetically:

Black Swan:
PROS: He's due, especially after the Requiem/Fountain/Wrestler snubs. Pi too. Good cast.
CONS: Well, if Requiem couldn't get nominated...

Blue Valentine:
PROS: Early buzz, Weinstein's campaigning, Gosling is due
CONS: Weinstein's campaigning, very indie

Ghost Writer:
PROS: Sympathy for Polanski.
CONS: Hatred for Polanski, early release, it's no Chinatown.

Harry Potter 7 Part 1:
PROS: Series is due for recognition, only series of 6 to be consistent (well, the last 5 Saw films were consistently bad)
CONS: There's the 2nd half, too kiddy and fantasy according to AMPAS. Never gets Visual Effects nominations.

Inception:
PROS: Nolan. And of course, DARK KNIGHT'S SNUB. ARGH. Great cast.
CONS: Very little info. Leo never wins. Nolan hasn't been nominated.

It's Kind of a Funny Story:
PROS: The source material is Academy-style funny. (Reitman-esque humor).
CONS: Cast is a bit iffy. Comedy isn't their thing. Young adult oriented, and that's a no-no.

Kids are All Right:
PROS: Bening and Moore are due, early as hell buzz, Sundance viewers loved it.
CONS: Too early buzz. Also, Brokeback.

Rabbit Hole:
PROS: Cast. The plot is the kind they love.
CONS: Naughty sounding title, very little info.

Scott Pilgrim vs The World:
PROS: Cera is a great actor, good source material.
CONS: Superbad couldn't get nominated, it's a comedy, the girlfriend reminds me of Clementine from Eternal Sunshine, which wasn't nominated. Might flop.

Shutter Island:
PROS: Scorsese and Leo.
CONS: Not a Goodfellas, Leo never wins. Early release.

Somewhere:
PROS: S. Coppola is 3 for 3. She's due.
CONS: Virgin Suicides couldn't get nominated for Screenplay, Bigelow may have won but women are still struggling. Also, little info.

Toy Story 3:
PROS: With Up + 10 slots + Pixar, it's very likely.
CONS: It's STILL animated, and other animators (Miyazaki, Disney, Dreamworks, some indie animator...) deserve a chance. Spread the love.

Twelve:
PROS: Very strong source.
CONS: They're iffy about drug movies and I want to kill whoever casted Chase Crawford.

Tree of Life:
PROS: He's due.
CONS: He can't get nominated.

True Grit:
PROS: Bridges just won and it got John Wayne an Oscar. Coen Bros are on a roll.
CONS: Remake.

Winter's Bone:
PROS: Sundance winner. Could pull a Precious.
CONS: Dark, an acting vehicle.

Ron Cruz said...

Cool list, thanks! As for HP7, I'm feeling slightly more confident about Part 2 (more epic), though Part 1 has a more Oscar-friendly release date (November) and a fair share of drama between the three leads. So maybe. It would certainly be fun to see it nom'd for Best Pic.

Ryonymous said...
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