Tuesday, September 04, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

LIKELY

1. TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (BEAUTIFUL BOY)


Role: Nic Sheff, a teen whose life spirals due to meth addiction

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

How close did Timothée Chalamet get to winning an Oscar? We will never know, but there's no denying how big a star he has become and the amount of respect that he gained among his peers due to Call Me By Your Name. Who's not excited to see him apply his tremendous acting talent to the role of a long-suffering meth addict? If it's a good enough film that gets traction in major categories, see him quickly become the front runner in this race.

MAYBE

2. SAM ROCKWELL (BACKSEAT)

Role: George W. Bush, 43rd President of the USA

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Sam Rockwell might be back in this category the year immediately following the one that saw him get his first Oscar. He's a very strong actor, and people are probably very excited to see how he portrays President Bush. If it doesn't stray too far into caricature territory, then he's probably a safe bet. At the very least, it will be great fun to watch him perform.

3. SAM ELLIOTT (A STAR IS BORN)


Role: Bobby, manager to stars Jackson and Ally

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

This grizzled veteran is well regarded but has never gotten a nomination. This might be his career nomination, but only if the film gets huge. So far, critics haven't been very excited about his performance even when they absolutely adore the movie. He hasn't displaced the conversations from the performances of Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga.

POSSIBLE

4. RUSSELL CROWE (BOY ERASED)


Role: Marshall Conley, a Baptist pastor who sends his son to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Gladiator

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Russell Crowe has not been in a major Oscar player for quite some time, so the Academy might be eager to welcome him back, even if the role is not sympathetic. It could be a hefty dramatic turn.

5. J.K. SIMMONS (THE FRONT RUNNER)


Role: Bill Dixon, campaign manager of Senator Gary Hart

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Whiplash

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

In what seems like a rather weak category, former Oscar winner J.K. Simmons can get into the nominees' circle again with what looks like (from the trailer) a fiery performance in a big supporting role. It certainly looks exciting. If the movie becomes a major player, he might even threaten to win.

6. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Role: Jack Hock, Lee Israel's friend and accomplice

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)

Role: French artist Paul Gauguin

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

Role: Detective Flip Zimmerman, Ron Stallworth's cover in the Ku Klux Klan

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Role: Mr. Rivers, a man who helps his daughter prove her jailed fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)

Role: Victor Sykes, head therapist in a gay conversion program

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Harvey Keitel (The Irishman)
Logan Lerman (Newsflash)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Mark Ruffalo (Newsflash)
Forest Whitaker (Burden)
Jeffrey Wright (Monster)

Other Contenders:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Jack Black (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Steve Buscemi (Lean on Pete)
Steve Carell (Backseat)
Russell Crowe (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Ricard Darín (Everybody Knows)
Bruce Dern (White Boy Rick)
Stephen Dillane (Outlaw King)
Jamie Dornan (A Private War)
Tom Felton (Ophelia)
Ralph Fiennes (The White Crow)
Dave Franco (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Bruno Ganz (The Party)
Bruno Ganz (Radegund)
Topher Grace (Under the Silver Lake)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Sisters Brothers)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife)
Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Jonah Hill (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Nicholas Hoult (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
Toby Kebbell (Destroyer)
Ben Kingsley (Operation Finale)
Jude Law (A Rainy Day in New York)
George MacKay (Ophelia)
Cillian Murphy (The Party)
Michael Nyqvist (Radegund)
Clive Owen (Ophelia)
Jürgen Prochnow (Radegund)
Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)
Tahar Ramin (New York Winter Palace)
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)
Sam Rockwell (Woman Walks Ahead)
Matthis Schoenaerts (Radegund)
Michael Shannon (What They Had)
Sebastian Stan (Destroyer)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Outlaw King)
Stanley Tucci (A Private War)
Sam Waterston (On the Basis of Sex)
Dominic West (Colette)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
5. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
6. Jonathan Pryce (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
7. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
8. Steve Carell (Backseat)
9. Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
10. Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)

August Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Rockwell (Backseat)
3. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
5. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
6. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
9. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
10. Steve Carell (Backseat)

1 comment:

Andrew R. said...

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
SNUBBED: Anthony Mackie, Alfred Molina