Wednesday, December 19, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (91st)

DECEMBER PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCK

1. RICHARD E. GRANT (CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?)

Role: Jack Hock, Lee Israel's accomplice

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citation:
Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best Supporting Male, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Supporting Actor, New York Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Chicago Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Supporting Actor, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Seattle Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

This amazing character actor has been giving impressive performances for a long time, so it would be awesome to see him getting his first nomination for this deliciously funny turn. He's got a lock on the critics PLUS noms from the Globes and SAG so he's probably the most surefire nominee in any acting category and the likely winner in this one.

MOST LIKELY

2. SAM ELLIOT (A STAR IS BORN)

Role: Bobby, manager to brother Jackson Maine

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, National Board of Review
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Las Vegas Fiklm Critics Society

This grizzled veteran is well regarded but has never gotten a nomination. This might be his career nom. He hasn't displaced the conversations from the performances of Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga but the movie's probably too big to ignore at this point. He's got the SAG nom, so the snub from the Globes probably doesn't matter.

3. ADAM DRIVER (BLACKKKLANSMAN)

Role: Detective Flip Zimmerman, Ron Stallworth's cover in the Ku Klux Klan

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award
Nomination, Best Supporting Male, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

Adam Driver does really great work in the hilarious BlacKkKlansman, and it's not really a surprise because he's a fine actor and everyone has known it for some time. He's hardly left out of major precursors and is nominated even when the film itself or his co-star John David Washington aren't, so he has a lot of support.

LIKELY

4. MAHERSHALA ALI (GREEN BOOK)

Role: Don Shirley, a classical pianist on a tour of the 1960s American South

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

The right movie at the right time. Recent winner Mahershala Ali may very likely be back in the running and even a threat to win for playing the role of a black, gay jazz artist struggling against discrimination despite his obvious genius. And the film is so well loved.

MAYBE

5. TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Role: Nic Sheff, a teen whose life spirals due to meth addiction

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Supporting Actor, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

It's a big drop from Oscar frontrunner to an uncertain nomination, but that's what happens when your film just isn't liked. However, even reviews that were lukewarm toward his film praised him, and he's got the important noms from the Globes, the BFCA, and SAG. How close did Timothée Chalamet get to winning an Oscar last year? We will never know, but there's no denying how big a star he has become and the amount of respect that he gained among his peers due to Call Me By Your Name.

POSSIBLE

6. Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Role: George W. Bush, 43rd President of the USA

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

7. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

Role: Erik Killmonger, T'challa's cousin who usurps the throne of Wakanda

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, San Diego Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actor, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild

8. Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)

Role: Ben, a drug addict who brings trouble to his family when he returns

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give)

Role: Maverick "Mav" Carter, patriarch of a family facing a trial

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Utah Film Critics Association

10. Steven Yeun (Burning)

Role: Ben, a mysterious man with a secret hobby

Oscar Record: No nominations

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association

Other Contenders:
Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) - Runner-up, Best Supporting Actor, Los Angeles Film Critics Association; Win, Best Supporting Actor, Utah Film Critics Association
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife)
Josh Hamilton (Eighth Grade) - Win, Best Supporting Actor, Detroit Film Critics Society

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Rockwell (Backseat/Vice)
5. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
6. Jonathan Pryce (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
7. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
8. Steve Carell (Backseat/Vice)
9. Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
10. Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)

August Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Rockwell (Backseat/Vice)
3. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
5. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
6. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
9. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
10. Steve Carell (Backseat/Vice)

September Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Rockwell (Backseat/Vice)
3. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
4. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
5. J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner)
6. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
10. Steve Carell (Backseat/Vice)

October Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
3. Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
4. Sam Rockwell (Vice)
5. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
6. Steve Carell (Vice)
7. J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner)
8. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
10. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)

November Predictions
1. Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
2. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
3. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
4. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
5. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
6. Sam Rockwell (Vice)
7. Steve Carell (Vice)
8. J.K. Simmons (The Frontrunner)
9. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
10. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)

1 comment:

Andrew R. said...

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
SNUBBED: Anthony Mackie, Alfred Molina