Friday, November 09, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (91st)

NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. MAHERSHALA ALI (GREEN BOOK)

Role: Don Shirley, a classical pianist on a tour of the 1960s American South

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

The right movie at the right time. Recent winner Mahershala Ali may very likely be back in the running and even a threat to win for playing the role of a black, gay jazz artist struggling against discrimination despite his obvious genius. And the film is so well loved.

LIKELY

2. TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Role: Nic Sheff, a teen whose life spirals due to meth addiction

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

How close did Timothée Chalamet get to winning an Oscar? We will never know, but there's no denying how big a star he has become and the amount of respect that he gained among his peers due to Call Me By Your Name. The problem is, while reviews of his performance have been glowing, but those for the film haven't. But if he does get nominated, I'm betting he can win over Ali.

3. SAM ELLIOT (A STAR IS BORN)

Role: Bobby, manager to brother Jackson Maine

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

This grizzled veteran is well regarded but has never gotten a nomination. This might be his career nomination. He hasn't displaced the conversations from the performances of Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga but the movie's probably too big to ignore at this point.

MAYBE

4. RICHARD E. GRANT (CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?)

Role: Jack Hock, Lee Israel's accomplice

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citation:
Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award

This amazing character actor has been giving impressive performances for a long time, so it would be awesome to see him getting his first nomination for this deliciously funny turn. But is there room enough beyond Melissa McCarthy for Oscar's notice?

POSSIBLE

5. ADAM DRIVER (BLACKKKLANSMAN)

Role: Detective Flip Zimmerman, Ron Stallworth's cover in the Ku Klux Klan

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Actor, Gotham Independent Film Award

With Sam Rockwell's potentially scene-stealing turn as George W. Bush still unseen, I'm giving the edge for a nomination to Adam Driver, who does really great work in the hilarious BlacKkKlansman. If the film gets good traction in the Best Picture category and there's a good campaign, Driver can get a well deserved first nomination.

6. Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Role: George W. Bush, 43rd President of the USA

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Steve Carell (Vice)

Role: Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defense

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner)

Role: Bill Dixon, campaign manager of Senator Gary Hart

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Whiplash

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)

Role: French artist Paul Gauguin

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)

Role: Marshall Conley, a Baptist pastor who sends his son to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 3 nominations, with a win for Gladiator

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Other Contenders:
Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Sisters Brothers)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Wildlife)
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give)
Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Rockwell (Backseat/Vice)
5. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
6. Jonathan Pryce (The Man Who Killed Don Quixote)
7. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
8. Steve Carell (Backseat/Vice)
9. Armie Hammer (On the Basis of Sex)
10. Jonathan Pryce (The Wife)

August Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Rockwell (Backseat/Vice)
3. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
4. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
5. Colman Domingo (If Beale Street Could Talk)
6. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
9. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
10. Steve Carell (Backseat/Vice)

September Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Rockwell (Backseat/Vice)
3. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
4. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)
5. J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner)
6. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
8. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
10. Steve Carell (Backseat/Vice)

October Predictions
1. Timotheé Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
2. Sam Elliot (A Star is Born)
3. Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
4. Sam Rockwell (Vice)
5. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
6. Steve Carell (Vice)
7. J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner)
8. Oscar Isaac (At Eternity's Gate)
9. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
10. Russell Crowe (Boy Erased)

1 comment:

Andrew R. said...

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz
SNUBBED: Anthony Mackie, Alfred Molina