Friday, November 09, 2018

PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES (91st)

NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
A Star is Born
Roma
Green Book
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
The Favourite
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Damien Chazelle (First Man)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Viola Davis (Widows)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Adam McKay (Vice)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BlacKkKlansman)
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters (A Star is Born)
Josh Singer, based on the book by James R. Hansen (First Man)
Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson)
Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 (Phil Johnston, Rich Moore)
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)
Smallfoot (Karey Kirkpatrick)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Burning (South Korea)
Capernaum (Lebanon)


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren (First Man)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Lukasz Zal (Cold War)
Matthew Libatique (A Star is Born)
Rachel Morrison (Black Panther)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell (The Favourite)
Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther)
Alexandra Byrne (Mary Queen of Scots)
Sandy Powell (Mary Poppins Returns)
Colleen Atwood (Fantastic Creatures: The Crimes of Grindelwald)

BEST FILM EDITING
Tom Cross (First Man)
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough (Roma)
Jay Cassidy (A Star is Born)
Yorgos Mavropsaridis (The Favourite)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
Suspiria

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz (First Man)
Marc Shaiman, Scott Whittman (Mary Poppins Returns)
Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Shallow" (A Star is Born)
"Maybe it’s Time" (A Star is Born)
"All of the Stars" (Black Panther)
"Ashes" (Deadpool 2)
"Flower of the Universe" (A Wrinkle in Time)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (The Favourite)
James Merifield, Gina Cromwell (Mary Queen of Scots)
John Myhre, Gordon Sim (Mary Poppins Returns)
Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart (Black Panther)
Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas (First Man)

BEST SOUND EDITING
First Man
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One

BEST SOUND MIXING
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Black Panther
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
First Man
Fantastic Creatures: Crimes of Grindelwald

Nominations Tally:
First Man - 11
A Star is Born - 11
Black Panther - 8
The Favourite - 8
If Beale Street Could Talk - 6
Roma - 6
Vice - 5
BlacKkKlansman - 4
Green Book - 4
Mary Poppins Returns - 4
Bohemian Rhapsody - 3
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 3
Mary Queen of Scots - 3
Avengers: Infinity War - 2
Cold War 2
Fantastic Creatures: Crimes of Grindelwald - 2
Isle of Dogs - 2
Ready Player One - 2
Beautiful Boy - 1
Burning 1
Capernau1
Deadpool 2 - 1
Eighth Grade - 1
Incredibles 2 - 1
Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 1
A Quiet Place - 1
Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1
Shoplifters 1
Smallfoot - 1
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1
Suspiria - 1
Widows - 1
The Wife - 1
A Wrinkle in Time - 1

41 comments:

drei said...

man i love this blog! it's like i'm reading in the future. :)

hope cate blanchett wins this time! boo to political gwyneth win in '99.

Ron said...

Thanks! Yup, I also really hope Cate wins. But a nom isn't even a sure thing, so for now I just hope she gets that.

J.D. said...

I swore Beowulf wasn't eligible... Hm.

Ron said...

It will be released on November 16 this year, so unless that date is moved, it will be eligible for the 80th.

Debby said...

dude, i love your bolg, but could you change the color?

Ron said...

hi! what about the colors specifically?

Marfil said...

Hello! I´m from Brazil and i like your blog very much, but do you need really put your predictions in alphabetical order? It to bad for others oscarbuzzers like me, for example... (Sorry my worst english. I speak portuguese...)

Ron said...

Hi! Only my summarized predictions and predictions on the categories other than the top 8 are alphabetized. If you go to the individual pages on predictions for the top 8 (pic, dir, actor, actress, supp actor, supp actress), you'll see that they're arranged by likelihood of getting a nom. Thanks for visiting the blog!

teppie said...

sir ron the oscar oracle,
have you read the book version of the lovely bones?
it's a real good read.

Ron said...

hi teppie! yes, i have! i really liked it :p i'm confident that peter jackson will give us a great adaptation.

ra said...

Being that the ACademy expanded the number of Best Pic noms to 10 and the reviews of the film are seemingly exceedingly through the roof, I think "The Hurt Locker" could be given a second look.

Ron said...

yup, just updated :)

coruja branca said...

Just one thing: the script for An Education, written by Nick Hornby, is not an adapted screenplay, it's an original screenplay. Thanks for the predictions.

coruja branca said...

Just one thing: the script for An Education, written by Nick Hornby, is not an adapted screenplay, it's an original screenplay. Thanks for the predictions.

Ron Cruz said...

Hi! I thought so, too, at first. But according to its IMDb entry, it's based on the memoirs of Lynn Barber. Incontention.com, Awardsdaily.com, and TheFilmExperience.net also all peg it as an Adapted Screenplay :)

Anonymous said...

Monique and Christoph have locks in the supporting acting categories. But Melanie laurent deserves a nom. And though up has animated locked up, I want ponyo or coraline to win. And 9 will not get nom'd for animation either.

Ron Cruz said...

I think you're right about 9 not getting a nod, Andrew.

October updates in a few :)

Jonathan Patrick said...

For Documentaries, are Food Inc. and Capitalism: A Love Story in the running?

Ron Cruz said...

Yup, as far as I know, they are.

Karan said...

I really hope that Meryl Streep wins for Julie and Julia!!!!!!

Ron Cruz said...

I'd also love to see Meryl finally win her 3rd Oscar :)

Andrew R. said...

AAAAAHHH WHAT HAPPENED TO THE TEXT! IT'S ALL SMALL AND UNREADABLE!

Ron Cruz said...

yeah, i don't know what happened. trying to fix it...

Andrew R. said...

MY FINAL PICKS UNTIL NOMINATIONS:
BEST PICTURE/DIRECTOR:
1-2. Precious or Up in the Air
3. Hurt Locker
4. Avatar
5. Inglourious Basterds
6. An Education
7. Invictus
8. Up
9. A Serious Man
10. Bright Star
Alternates: None now that Nine is out

BEST ACTOR:
1. Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
2. George Clooney (Up in the Air)
3. Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
4. Colin Firth (Single Man)
5. Jeremy Renner (Hurt Locker)
Alternates: Viggo Mortensen in The Road

BEST ACTRESS:
1. Carey Mulligan in An Education
2. Meryl Streep in Julie and Julia
3. Gabby Sibide in Precious
4. Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
5. Helen Mirren in The Last Station
Alternates: Emily Blunt in Young Victoria, Marion Cotillard in Nine, Abbie Cornish in Bright Star

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Christoph Waltz in Basterds
2. Woody Harrelson in Messenger
3. Chris Plummer for Last Station
4. Matt Damon in Invictus
5. Stanley Tucci in Lovely Bones
Alternates: Alfred Molina in An Education, Anthony Mackie in Hurt Locker, Christian McKay in Me and Orson Welles

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Mo'nique in Precious (YAY!)
2. Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
3. Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
4. Melanie Laurent in Basterds (ACADEMY, DON'T PUT HER IN THE LEAD CATEGORY!)
5. Julianne Moore in Single Man
Alternates: Cotillard if her campaign doesn't work out even though I think it will, Cruz in Nine, Diane Kruger in Basterds, and even though she has no chance Fergie in Nine

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
1-2. Precious/Up in the Air
3. An Education
4. Invictus
5. Bright Star
Alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Hurt Locker
2. Avatar
3. Inglourious Basterds
4. Serious Man
5. (500) Days of Summer

ANIMATED FILM:
1. Up
2-4. Coraline, Princess and the Frog, and Fantastic Mr. Fox.
5. Either Ponyo or Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs-Ponyo's better, but it is getting snub after snub.

DOCUMENTARY:
1. The Cove
2-5. Who cares, they're going to lose now that Capitalism: A Love Story is ineligible.

FOREIGN:
1. White Ribbon (Germany)
2. A Prophet (France)
3. About Elly (Iran)
4. Mother (Korea)
5. Baaria (Italy)

And I don't care about the others, except Best Song (I'd like to see Friends on the Other Side win) and Animated Short (Partly Cloudy!)

Ron Cruz said...

I'm beginning to think that Star Trek and District 9 have better chances of getting a Best Pic nod than Bright Star. Where's the support for that film?

Still crossing my fingers for a surprise Zoe Saldana nom for Supporting, but I know it's highly unlikely :)

Ponyboy said...

District 9 just started to sprint in the race. Likely to replace Nine, and get a adapted screenplay nomination (director too?).

Ron Cruz said...

yup, i agree with both points :)

Andrew R. said...

Any plans to update your picks now that the nominees are out?

(The Blind Side? WTF?)

Ron Cruz said...

Done. And yeah, WTF indeed.

Justin said...

I admire the work of Anne Hathaway especially in this movie where she presents her romantic side. A funny fact, I was looking for another movie related to a group of guys who Buy Viagra in order to improve their sentimental relationships but I watched this instead because of the name he he.

Ron Cruz said...

So you've seen the movie? What do you think of Anne's Oscar chances?

Andrew R. said...

Can you please get rid of all the spam? (For the record, that guy Justin is spamming...)

My Predictions:
PICTURE: Another Year, Black Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids Are All Right, King's Speech, Never Let Me Go, Social Network, Toy Story 3, Way Back

Alternates: 127 Hours (very dependent on Franco), Miral (not getting raves), True Grit (Coens are going to miss a nom eventually), Winter's Bone (loved it, but it's pretty indie).

DIRECTOR: Aronofsky, Choldenko, Fincher, Leigh, Nolan

Alternates: Boyle (could we have a Picture/Director split with 10 nominees? Plus, I was reluctant to pick Aronofsky-too risque)

ACTOR: Bardem, Bridges, Duvall, Firth, Gosling

Alternates: Franco (either performance could work, but it might split votes)

ACTRESS: Bening, Lawrence, Manville, Portman, Williams

Alternates: Kidman (when is the film coming out?), Swank (that trailer turned me off so much-it was so Oscarish it made me sick), Wright (I just don't feel it happening)

S. ACTOR: Bale, Galifanakis, Murray, Ruffalo, Rush

Alternates: Rockwell (see Swank). For the record, I really, really, really doubt a Cassel nomination.

S. ACTRESS: Bonham-Carter, Knightley, Leo, Stewart (Welcome to the Rileys-Gandolfini might get Lead, so she might be Supporting? This is mostly because I just don't see Moore and Wiest getting nominated), Thomas

Alternates: Moore (category confusion), Wiest (they have never given anyone 3 S. Actress awards)

Andrew R. said...

Prediction update time:

Picture:
1. Social Network
2. King's Speech
3. Inception
4. Toy Story 3
5. Kids Are All Right
6. 127 Hours
7. Another Year
8. True Grit
9. Black Swan
10. The Fighter
BACKUP: I hate to say it, but Secretariat.

Director: I really want to say Aronofsky, but I'm going with Fincher, Hooper, Nolan, Cholodenko, Boyle. In that order.
BACKUP: Aronofsky, Coens, Leigh

Actor:
1. Firth
2. Franco
3. Bridges
4. Duvall
5. Wahlberg
BACKUP: Bardem, Eisenberg

Actress:
1. Bening
2. Portman
3. Hathaway
4. Kidman
5. Hawkins
BACKUP: Swank, Lawrence, Moore

S Actor:
1. Bale
2. Rush
3. Ruffalo
4. Rockwell
5. Murray
BACKUP: Galifanakis, Timberlake, Garfield

S Actress:
1. Bonham Carter
2. Wiest
These are the only two that seem likely.
3. Steinfeld
4. Richardson
5. Cotillard
BACKUP: Nada.

Kraxpelax said...

Intelligens!

Vinny said...

here are my predictions for the upcoming year:

http://howtobesquare.tumblr.com/post/6097675077/early-2011-oscar-predictions-this-is-my-first

inkscrawler said...

Best Animaton is 3 films. Oh and by the way it is too early to predict, there could be that film that appears from nowhere to stun and impress audiences everywhere like "Precious" or "Winters bone" then again I do understand that this is predictions and not the real thing. It's still a nice wee list you got there. Also wouldn't it be the 2012 Academy awards. You forgot the potential of 'Tinker, tailor, soldeir spy' the new mission impossible and the fact that David Finchers last two films got nominations for Best Director so Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is a possibility.

Plus you gave Xmen first class a C+ when Thor got an A. I disagree.

Nice blogs anyway man

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Santan said...

Great predictions! I have high hopes for Extremely Loud, since I really enjoyed the book, and in my opinion Eric Roth did well on The Horse Whisperer and Benjamin Button. :D Also for War Horse because I'm a sucker for horse movies.

Personally I don't think Tree of Life is getting a Best Motion Picture nom, if only because I hear it catered to only a certain artsy faction of the audience. (I haven't watched it though, but my friends have described it as being like watching a nature screensaver, haha.) For Cinematography, though, I'd totally agree.

The animation category almost always makes me depressed, because as much as I love Disney and Pixar, I'd like to see a film from a lesser-known/foreign studio win once in a while. That hasn't happened since...Spirited Away, I think? Or was it Triplets. Anyway, also hoping for a non-Disney/Pixar win this year. :D

Wow this was a lot longer than I intended it to be. Sorry for the text walls!

(Also Sir Ron is this really you O_O as in the Sir Ron who teaches Bio 9 A.)

Ron Cruz said...

Amended my predictions and removed Tree of Life from my predictions list. Yeah, it's really an acquired taste.

I agree with your comment on the Animated Feature category. There's almost always one non-Pixar or non-mainstream film in the mix. Last year it was The Illusionist by Sylvain Chomet (France).

Yup, it's me :) I suppose you're in my class... Who are you? :)

Таня Билаш said...

nice! cool!

Manga Freak said...

I love your blog and I love your predictions. We share the same thoughts regarding the awards. Cant wait for it, like to read more from your blog, cheers!

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