Friday, November 09, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (91st)

NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. EMMA STONE (THE FAVOURITE)

Role: Abigail Masham, one of two cousins using seduction to curry favor with Queen Anne

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, with a win for La La Land

All three women are said to be amazing in this film, but more than a few write-ups have singled out Emma Stone's performance and say that it's the largest one. The role seems to be a perfect showcase for her skill in both comedy and drama. And certainly the Academy loves her. It's been two years since she won so it wouldn't be too soon to nominate her again. Now that Olivia Colman has officially begun a campaign in the lead category, this is Stone's to lose.

LIKELY

2. REGINA KING (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Role: Sharon Rivers, mother of a woman in a race to prove her fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Even before the quietly beautiful trailer of If Beale Street Could Talk came out, everyone knew that Regina King had netted an Oscar bait role. It's about time, as she's been churning out strong performances in both film and television. The right role, in what may be a huge Oscar player, may have finally come for her. The reviews are strong, and that surprise win in the Emmys brings attention to her and how loved she is by her peers.

MAYBE

3. RACHEL WEISZ (THE FAVOURITE)

Role: Lady Sarah, one of two cousins using seduction to curry favor with Queen Anne

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for The Constant Gardener

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Two nominees in this category from the same film is definitely not unheard of, and this seems to be the type of film that will get all three of its principals nominated. Plus, it's been a long time since Rachel Weisz got a second nomination despite years of great performances.

POSSIBLE

4. AMY ADAMS (VICE)

Role: Lynne Cheney, wife of Dick Cheney

Oscar Record: 5 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Putting on prostheses and playing the wife of a powerful political figure might just be the role that gets semi-regular nominee Amy Adams her first Oscar, two years after she barely missed a nomination for Arrival. She's well loved by the Academy, to be sure. A nomination is likely, at least. But is it coming in too late, with several actresses having virtually cemented their place in the race already?

5. MICHELLE YEOH (CRAZY RICH ASIANS)

Role: Eleanor Young, disapproving mother of rich bachelor Nick Young

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

I'm calling it: continually placing Claire Foy in the top 5 is lazy prognostication, especially with First Man sadly slipping in the public's consciousness. I'll probably be wrong for writing her off, but if there's anyone who can take the slot away from her, it's Michelle Yeoh for her delicious turn in the feel-good mega-hit Crazy Rich Asians. They have to launch a strong campaign emphasizing the career that Yeoh has had in world cinema!

6. Claire Foy (First Man)

Role: Janet Shearon, first wife of Neil Armstrong

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Role: Nancy Conley, mother of a young man who gets sent to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

Role: Queen Elizabeth I

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

Roles: Madame Blanc, Helena Markos, Dr. Josef Klemperer

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for Michael Clayton

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

Role: Alice, widowed by her criminal husband

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Other Contenders:
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Rachel McAdams (Disobedience)
Sissy Spacek (The Old Man and the Gun)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
2. Amy Adams (Backseat/Vice)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
5. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
6. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
7. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)
8. Rachel Weisz (The Mercy)
9. Saoirse Ronan (The Seagull)
10. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

August Predictions
1. Amy Adams (Backseat/Vice)
2. Claire Foy (First Man)
3. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
4. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
6. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
7. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)
8. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)
9. Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
10. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

September Predictions
1. Amy Adams (Backseat/Vice)
2. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
6. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
7. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
8. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
10. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

October Predictions
1. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
2. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Amy Adams (Vice)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
6. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
7. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
8. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
10. Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

2 comments:

Andrew R. said...

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Mo'nique all the way.
SNUBBED: Melanie Laurent, Julianne Moore

Basil Alvin said...

there is no movie which made without supporting character.This is a good list and like your search.I saw many Top 10 List but i couldn't see that type of post yet.