Wednesday, December 19, 2018

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (91st)

DECEMBER PREDICTIONS

ESSENTIAL LOCK

1. EMMA STONE (THE FAVOURITE)

Role: Abigail Masham, one of two cousins using seduction to curry favor with Queen Anne

Oscar Record: 2 nominations, with a win for La La Land

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

All three women are said to be amazing in this film, but more than a few write-ups have singled out Emma Stone's performance and say that it's the largest one. The role seems to be a perfect showcase for her skill in both comedy and drama. And certainly the Academy loves her. It's been two years since she won so it wouldn't be too soon to nominate her again.

MOST LIKELY

2. AMY ADAMS (VICE)

Role: Lynne Cheney, wife of Dick Cheney

Oscar Record: 5 nominations, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

Putting on prostheses and playing the wife of a powerful political figure might just be the role that gets semi-regular nominee Amy Adams her first Oscar, two years after she barely missed a nomination for Arrival. She's well loved by the Academy, to be sure. A nomination is likely, at least. With Regina King's nomination an uncertainty given the SAG snub and the votes potentially splitting between The Favourite girls Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, Adams is a likely win if she gets the nom.

3. RACHEL WEISZ (THE FAVOURITE)

Role: Lady Sarah, one of two cousins using seduction to curry favor with Queen Anne

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for The Constant Gardener

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

Two nominees in this category from the same film is definitely not unheard of, and this seems to be the type of film that will get all three of its principals nominated. Plus, it's been a long time since Rachel Weisz got a second nomination despite years of great performances.

MAYBE

4. REGINA KING (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Role: Sharon Rivers, mother of a woman in a race to prove her fiancé's innocence

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Supporting Female, Film Independent Spirit Awards
Win, Best Supporting Actress, National Board of Review
Win, Best Supporting Actress, New York Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Philadelphia Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, San Diego Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Supporting Actress, New York Film Critics Online
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Boston Society of Film Critics
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Las Vegas Film Critics Society
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Win, Best Supporting Actress, Seattle Film Critics Society

Even before the quietly beautiful trailer of If Beale Street Could Talk came out, everyone knew that Regina King had netted an Oscar bait role. It's about time, as she's been churning out strong performances in both film and television. The right role, in what may be a huge Oscar player, may have finally come for her. The reviews are strong, and that surprise win in the Emmys brings attention to her and how loved she is by her peers. She's almost sweeping the critics' awards. Might the snub in SAG be a minor hiccup?

POSSIBLE

5. MICHELLE YEOH (CRAZY RICH ASIANS)

Role: Eleanor Young, disapproving mother of rich bachelor Nick Young

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Screen Actors Guild

I'm calling it: continually placing Claire Foy in the top 5 is lazy prognostication, especially with First Man sadly slipping in the public's consciousness. I'll probably be wrong for writing her off, but if there's anyone who can take the slot away from her, it's Michelle Yeoh for her delicious turn in the feel-good mega-hit Crazy Rich Asians. They have to launch a strong campaign emphasizing the career that Yeoh has had in world cinema! The SAG nomination for the ensemble of Crazy Rich Asians gives me a bit more confidence, because I don't see SAG nominees Emily Blunt or Margot Robbie getting the nod.

6. Claire Foy (First Man)

Role: Janet Shearon, first wife of Neil Armstrong

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

7. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Role: Nancy Conley, mother of a young man who gets sent to gay conversion therapy

Oscar Record: 4 nominations, with a win for The Hours

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Supporting Actress, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)

8. Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)

Role: Evelyn Abbott, matriarch of a family struggling to survive in a dangerous post-apocalyptic world

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild

9. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

Role: Queen Elizabeth I

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, Screen Actors Guild
Nomination, Best Supporting Actress, British Academy of Film and Television Arts

10. Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

Role: Alice, widowed by her abusive criminal husband

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Utah Film Critics Association

Other Contenders:
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) - Win, Best Supporting Actress, Chicago Film Critics AssociationRunner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Indiana Film Journalists Association; Win, Best Supporting Actress, Utah Film Critics Association
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie (Leave No Trace) - Nomination, Best Supporting Female, Film Independent Spirit Awards; Runner-up, Best Supporting Actress, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux)
Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
2. Amy Adams (Backseat/Vice)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
5. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
6. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
7. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)
8. Rachel Weisz (The Mercy)
9. Saoirse Ronan (The Seagull)
10. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

August Predictions
1. Amy Adams (Backseat/Vice)
2. Claire Foy (First Man)
3. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
4. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
6. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
7. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)
8. Maura Tierney (Beautiful Boy)
9. Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
10. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

September Predictions
1. Amy Adams (Backseat/Vice)
2. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
6. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
7. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
8. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner)
10. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)

October Predictions
1. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
2. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Claire Foy (First Man)
4. Amy Adams (Vice)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
6. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
7. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
8. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
10. Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

November Predictions
1. Emma Stone (The Favourite)
2. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
3. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
4. Amy Adams (Vice)
5. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
6. Claire Foy (First Man)
7. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
8. Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
9. Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)
10. Elizabeth Debicki (Widows)

2 comments:

Andrew R. said...

WILL/SHOULD WIN: Mo'nique all the way.
SNUBBED: Melanie Laurent, Julianne Moore

Basil Alvin said...

there is no movie which made without supporting character.This is a good list and like your search.I saw many Top 10 List but i couldn't see that type of post yet.