Sunday, September 02, 2018

BEST ADAPTED SCREEPLAY (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. JOSH SINGER, based on the book by James R. Hansen (FIRST MAN)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination and win for writing Spotlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

LIKELY

2. BARRY JENKINS, based on the novel by James Baldwin (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing Moonlight

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

3. CHARLIE WACHTEL, DAVID RABINOWITZ, KEVIN WILLMOTT, SPIKE LEE, based on the book by Ron Stallworth (BLACKKKLANSMAN)

Oscar Records:
Wachtel: No nomination
Rabinowitz: No nomination
Willmott: No nomination
Lee: 2 nominations (as writer and for documentary feature), with an Honorary Award

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

4. MATT BAI, JAY CARSON, JASON REITMAN, based on the book by Matt Bai (THE FRONT RUNNER)

Oscar Records:
Bai: No nomination
Carson: No nomination
Reitman: 4 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

5. LUKE DAVIES, based on the memoirs by David Sheff and Nic Sheff (BEAUTIFUL BOY)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination (as writer), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

6. Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, based on a story by William A. Wellman, Robert Carson (A Star is Born)

Oscar Records:
Roth: 4 nominations (as writer), with a win for Forrest Gump
Cooper: 4 nominations (as producer, actor), no win
Fetters: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole, based on characters created by Stan Lee, Jack Kirby (Black Panther)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Joel Edgerton, based on the book by Garrard Conley (Boy Erased)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim, based on the book by Kevin Kwan (Crazy Rich Asians)

Oscar Records: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin, based on the comic book by Fabien Nury, Thierry Robin (The Death of Stalin)

Oscar Records:
Nury: No nomination
Iannucci: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Schneider: No nomination
Martin: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Screenplay (Adapted), BAFTA (2017)

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these might displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Kirsten Dunst, Nellie Kim, based on the novel by Sylvia Plath (The Bell Jar)
Steve Zaillian, based on the book by Charles Brandt (The Irishman)
Tony Kushner, based on the novel by David I. Kertzer (The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara)
Janece Shaffer, Colen C. Wiley, based on the novel by Walter Dean Myers (Monster)
Geoffrey Fletcher, based on the magazine article by David Grann (Trial by Fire)

Other Contenders:
Alex Garland, based on the novel by Jeff VanderMeer (Annihilation)
Robin Bissell, based on the book by Osha Gray Davidson (The Best of Enemies)
Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Robert Rodat, based on the book by Nicholas Dawidoff (The Catcher Was a Spy)
Sebastián Lelio, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, based on the novel by Naomi Alderman (Disobedience)
Gus Van Sant, based on the book by John Callahan (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
Kristin Hahn, based on the novel by Julie Murphy (Dumplin')
Brad Bird, based on characters created by Brad Bird (Incredibles 2)
Andrew Haigh, based on the novel by Willy Vlautin (Lean on Pete)
Debra Granik, based on the novel by Peter Rock (Leave No Trace)
David Magee, based on the books by P.L. Travers (Mary Poppins Returns)
Beau Willimon, based on the book by John Guy (Mary Queen of Scots)
Desiree Akhavan, Cecilia Frugiuele, based on the novel by Emily M. Danforth (The Miseducation of Cameron Post)
Semi Chellas, based on the book by Lisa Klein (Ophelia)
Arash Amel, based on the magazine article by Marie Brenner (A Private War)
Jacques Audiard, based on the novel by Patrick Dewitt (The Sisters Brothers)
David Kajganich, based on characters created by Dario Argento, Daria Nicolodi (Suspiria)
Shaun Grant, based on the novel by Peter Carey (The True History of the Kelly Gang)
Chanya Button, based on the play by Eileen Atkins (Vita and Virginia)
David Hare, based on the book by Julie Kavanagh (The White Crow)
Jane Anderson, based on the novel by Meg Wolitzer (The Wife)
Paul Dano, Zoe Kazan, based on the novel by Richard Ford (Wildlife)
Lynne Ramsay, based on the book by Jonathan Ames (You Were Never Really Here)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
2. Josh Singer (First Man)
3. Richard Linklater, Holly Gent, Vincent Palmo Jr. (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
4. Luke Davies (Beautiful Boy)
5. Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (Black Panther)
6. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
7. Brad Bird (Incredibles 2)
8. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin (The Death of Stalin)
9. Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
10. Beau Willimon (Mary Queen of Scots)

August Predictions
1. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
2. Josh Singer (First Man)
3. Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
4. Luke Davies (Beautiful Boy)
5. Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (Black Panther)
6. Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased)
7. Eri Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters (A Star is Born)
8. Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman (The Front Runner)
9. Fabien Nury, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin (The Death of Stalin)
10. Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)

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