Sunday, September 02, 2018

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (91st)

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

MOST LIKELY

1. ALFONSO CUARÓN (ROMA)

Oscar Record: 6 nominations (as director, writer, producer, editor) with wins for directing and editing Gravity

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

LIKELY

2. DEBORAH DAVIS, TONY MCNAMARA (THE FAVOURITE)

Oscar Records: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

3. BO BURNHAM (EIGHTH GRADE)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

MAYBE

4. ADAM MCKAY (BACKSEAT)

Oscar Record: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for writing The Big Short

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

POSSIBLE

5. PAUL SCHRADER (FIRST REFORMED)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

6. Jean-Claude Carrière, Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)

Oscar Records:
Carrière: 4 nominations (as writer and for live action short), with an Honorary Award
Schnabel: 1 nomination (as director), no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

7. Phil Hay, Matt Manfredi (Destroyer)

Oscar Records: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

8. Caroline Thompson, Robert Zemeckis (Welcome to Marwen)

Oscar Records:
Thompson: No nomination
Zemeckis: 2 nominations (as director, writer), with a win for directing Forrest Gump

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

9. Ari Aster (Hereditary)

Oscar Record: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

10. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman (Isle of Dogs)

Oscar Records:
Anderson: 6 nominations (as director, writer, producer), no win
Coppola: 1 nomination (as writer), no win
Nomura: No nomination
Schwartzman: No nomination

Pre-Oscar Citations:
None

Potential Major Players Currently Without Distributors (any of these can easily displace the lower-ranked contenders above once release dates are officially announced):
Andrew Heckler (Burden)
Sarah Ruhl (My Life On the Road)
Bryce Kass (Lizzie)
David Gordon Green (Newsflash)

Other Contenders:
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Ethan Hawke, Sybil Rosen (Blaze)
Justin Haythe, Anthony McCarten (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Ian McEwan (The Children Act)
Richard Glatzer, Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Wash Westmoreland (Colette)
Marcus Hinchey (Come Sunday)
David Zellner, Nathan Zellner (Damsel)
Xavier Dolan, Jacob Tierney (The Death and Life of John F. Donovan)
David Auburn (Georgetown)
Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga (Green Book)
Rupert Everett (The Happy Prince)
Claire Denis, Jean-Pol Fargeau, Nick Laird, Zadie Smith (High Life)
Lars von Trier (The House That Jack Built)
Mike Makowsky (I Think We're Alone Now)
Scott Z. Burns (The Mercy)
Lone Scherfig (New York Winter Palace)
Paul Greengrass, Åsne Seierstad (Norway)
Daniel Stiepleman (On the Basis of Sex)
Matthew Orton (Operation Finale)
Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
David Mackenzie (Outlaw King)
Sally Potter (The Party)
Mike Leigh (Peterloo)
Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)
Terrence Malick (Radegund)
Woody Allen (A Rainy Day in New York)
Lindsay Shapero (Red Joan)
Aneesh Chaganty, Sev Ohanian (Searching)
Steven Knight (Serenity)
Taylor Sheridan (Sicario 2: Soldado)
Crystal Moselle, Jen Silverman, Aslihan Unaldi (Skate Kitchen)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Jeff Pope (Stan and Ollie)
Steven McGregor, David Tranter (Sweet Country)
Diablo Cody (Tully)
David Robert Mitchell (Under the Silver Lake)
Behn Zeitlin (Wendy)
Elizabeth Chomko (What They Had)
Darci Picoult (Where Is Kyra?)
Logan Miller, Noah Miller, Andy Weiss, Steve Kloves, Scott Silver (White Boy Rick)
Steven Knight (Woman Walks Ahead)

"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018)
1. Adam McKay (Backseat)
2. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman (Isle of Dogs)
3. Diablo Cody (Tully)
4. Daniel Stiepleman (On the Basis of Sex)
5. Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
6. Tamara Jenkins (Private Life)
7. Caroline Thompson, Robert Zemeckis (The Women of Marwen)
8. Ari Aster (Hereditary)
9. Scott Z. Burns (The Mercy)
10. Jonathan Bernstein, James Greer (Unsane)

August Predictions
1. Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
2. Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
3. Adam McKay (Backseat)
4. Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
5. Paul Schrader (First Reformed)
6. Jean-Claude Carrière, Julian Schnabel (At Eternity's Gate)
7. Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind)
8. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Kunichi Nomura, Jason Schwartzman (Isle of Dogs)
9. Diablo Cody (Tully)
10. Daniel Stiepleman (On the Basis of Sex)

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