Wednesday, January 23, 2019

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (91st)

PAUL SCHRADER (FIRST REFORMED)

Oscar Record: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Chicago Film Critics Association
Win, Best Screenplay, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Screenplay (Original), San Francisco Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Indiana Film Journalists Association
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Oklahoma Film Critics Circle

DEBORAH DAVIS, TONY MCNAMARA (THE FAVOURITE)

Oscar Records: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Screenplay, Atlanta Film Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Screenplay-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Win, Best Screenplay, Toronto Film Critics Association
Win, Best Screenplay, New York Film Critics Online
Runner-up, Best Screenplay, Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Kansas City Film Critics Circle
Win, Best Screenplay, Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association
Runner-up, Best Original Screenplay, Utah Film Critics Association
Win, Best Screenplay, Seattle Film Critics Society
Win, Best Original Screenplay, Nevada Film Critics Society
Win, Best Original Screenplay, North Carolina Film Critics Association
Win, Best Screenplay, Phoenix Critics Circle
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

NICK VALLELONGA, BRIAN HAYES CURRIE, PETER FARRELLY (GREEN BOOK)

Oscar Records: 1 nomination, no win

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Screenplay, Detroit Film Critics Society
Win, Best Screenplay-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Original Screenplay, San Diego Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Writers Guild of America (WGA)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

ALFONSO CUARĂ“N (ROMA)

Oscar Record: 10 nominations (as director, writer, producer, editor, cinematographer) with wins for directing and editing Gravity

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Nomination, Best Screenplay-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Runner-up, Best Screenplay, Toronto Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Writers Guild of America (WGA)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

ADAM MCKAY (VICE)

Oscar Record: 5 nominations (as director, writer, producer), with a win for writing The Big Short

Pre-Oscar Citations:
Win, Best Screenplay, Detroit Film Critics Society
Nomination, Best Screenplay-Motion Picture, Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Broadcast Film Critics Association (Critics Choice)
Win, Best Original Screenplay, St. Louis Film Critics Association
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, Writers Guild of America (WGA)
Nomination, Best Original Screenplay, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA)

PREDICTION SCORES:
"Never Too Early" Predictions (March 2018) - 1/5 (Vice)
August Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, Vice, The Favourite, First Reformed)
September Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, The Favourite, Vice, First Reformed)
October Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, Green Book, The Favourite, Vice)
November Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, Green Book, The Favourite, Vice)
December Predictions - 4/5 (Roma, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice)
Final Predictions (January 2019) - 4/5 (Roma, The Favourite, Vice, Green Book)

WILL WIN: Roma
SHOULD WIN: The Favourite
MIGHT UPSET: The Favourite
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Jason Schwartzman, Kunichi Nomura (Isle of Dogs); Oja Kodar, Orson Welles (The Other Side of the Wind); Ari Aster (Hereditary)

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