Updated Predictions

My updated predictions, my last before 2006, are up.

Golden Globe nominees

Here's the list of nominees for the 63rd annual Golden Globe awards, courtesy of Oscarwatch. Just a few surprises: Maria Bello for Best Actress, not Supporting; no Gong Li or Diane Keaton in the Supporting race; and no Munich for Best Motion Picture-Drama (instead there's Match Point). My prediction scores and some notes are to be seen after each category.

MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
"Brokeback Mountain"
"The Constant Gardener"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"A History of Violence"
"Match Point"
Score: 2/5. Where's Munich?

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Maria Bello, "A History of Violence"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Gwyneth Paltrow, "Proof"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Ziyi Zhang, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Score: 3/5. I mistakenly placed Huffman in the Comedy/Musical category. Joan Allen failed to get the boost she needed.

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Russell Crowe, "Cinderella Man"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Score: 4/5. With Eric Bana missing, Munich just isn't the HFPA's cup of tea.

MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
"Mrs. Henderson Presents"
"Pride & Prejudice"
"The Producers"
"The Squid and the Whale"
"Walk the Line"
Score: 4/5.

ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Keira Knightly, "Pride & Prejudice"
Laura Linney, "The Squid and the Whale"
Sarah Jessica Parker, "The Family Stone"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Score: 4/5.

ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Pierce Brosnan, "The Matador"
Jeff Daniels, "The Squid and the Whale"
Johnny Depp, "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"
Nathan Lane, "The Producers"
Cillian Murphy, "Breakfast on Pluto"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
Score: 4/5(6). Missed out on Depp and Brosnan in favor of Murray.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Kung Fu Hustle" (China)
"Master of the Crimson Armor" aka "The Promise" (China)
"Merry Christmas (Joyeux Noel)" (France)
"Paradise Now" (Palenstine)
"Tsotsi" (South Africa)
Score: NA.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Scarlett Johansson, "Match Point"
Shirley MacLaine, "In Her Shoes"
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Score: a dismal 1/5. Got only Scarlett right. I was thinking they'd go for Streep (over Williams) as they usually do. Where's Gong Li?!

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Will Ferrell, "The Producers"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Bob Hoskins, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Score: 3/5. Geoffrey Rush, like costar Bana, missing. Surprise nom for Ferrell.

DIRECTOR - MOTION PICTURE
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Peter Jackson, "King Kong"
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Fernando Meirelles, "The Constant Gardener"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Score: 4/5(6).

SCREENPLAY - MOTION PICTURE
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
George Clooney & Grant Heslov, "Good Night, And Good Luck"
Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, "Crash"
Tony Kushner & Eric Roth, "Munich"
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"
Score: NA.

ORIGINAL SCORE - MOTION PICTURE
Alexandre Desplat, "Syriana"
James Newton Howard, "King Kong"
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Brokeback Mountain"
Harry Gregson-Williams, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
John Williams, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Score: NA.

ORIGINAL SONG - MOTION PICTURE
"A Love That Will Never Grow Old" -- "Brokeback Mountain"Music by: Gustavo Santaolalla, Lyrics by: Bernie Taupin
"Christmas in Love" -- "Christmas in Love"Music by: Tony Renis, Lyrics by: Marva Jan Marrow
"There's Nothing Like a Show on Broadway" -- "The Producers"Music & Lyrics by: Mel Brooks
"Travelin' Thru" -- "Transamerica"Music & Lyrics by: Dolly Parton
"Wunderkind" -- "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"Music & Lyrics by: Alanis Morissette
Score: NA.

Random Oscar thoughts

How to solve the problem with Memoirs of a Geisha... It hasn't been performing well in the first few awards (even heavily buzzed actresses Ziyi Zhang and Gong Li were snubbed by the BFCA), and reviews range from mixed to downright vicious (it currently has a sad 28% rating at Rotten Tomatoes). I am no longer confident at all about its chances for a Best Picture nomination, but I'm still hoping for (and rather expecting) noms for the two actresses. Let's see how the Golden Globe nominations unfold. They'll be coming out tomorrow.

Recently learned from its FYC ads that Disney is pitching Tilda Swinton for a Best Actress nomination for her praised performance in The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. What the hell are they thinking?! She has no chance whatsoever of scoring that nom! The buzz that she's getting (which isn't very much to begin with) is all for a possible Supporting consideration. Someone please tell me that they've recently changed this tactic of theirs.

Broadcast Film Critics Association nominees

Here's the list of nominees for the 11th annual Critics' Choice Awards. Note the absence of Ziyi Zhang and Gong Li from the list. Sad.

BEST PICTURE:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Walk the Line

BEST ACTOR:
Russell Crowe – “Cinderella Man”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “Capote”
Terrence Howard – “Hustle & Flow”
Heath Ledger – “Brokeback Mountain”
Joaquin Phoenix – “Walk the Line”
David Strathairn – “Good Night, and Good Luck.”

BEST ACTRESS:
Joan Allen – “The Upside of Anger”
Judi Dench - “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
Felicity Huffman – “Transamerica”
Keira Knightley – “Pride & Prejudice”
Charlize Theron – “North Country”
Reese Witherspoon – “Walk the Line”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
George Clooney – “Syriana”
Kevin Costner – “The Upside of Anger”
Matt Dillon – “Crash”
Paul Giamatti – “Cinderella Man”
Jake Gyllenhaal – “Brokeback Mountain”
Terrence Howard – “Crash”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams – “Junebug”
Maria Bello – “A History of Violence”
Catherine Keener – “Capote”
Frances McDormand – “North Country”
Rachel Weisz – “The Constant Gardener”
Michelle Williams – “Brokeback Mountain”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Rent
Syriana
Sin City

BEST DIRECTOR:
George Clooney – “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Paul Haggis – “Crash”
Ron Howard – “Cinderella Man”
Peter Jackson – “King Kong”
Ang Lee – “Brokeback Mountain”
Steven Spielberg – “Munich”

Go here for the complete list.

Golden Globe Predictions

Hey, just for fun, I'm posting my predictions for the big film categories of the Golden Globes. I don't think I really need to wait for the NBR list to come out.

Best Motion Picture-Drama
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck.
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Alternate: Crash

Best Motion Picture-Comedy or Musical
The Family Stone
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride and Prejudice
The Producers
Walk the Line
Alternate: In Her Shoes

Best Actor-Drama
Eric Bana (Munich)
Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Alternate: Ralph Fiennes (The White Countess)

Best Actor-Comedy or Musical
Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale)
Nathan Lane (The Producers)
Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto)
Bill Murray (Broken Flowers)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
Alternate: Steve Carell (The 40-Year Old Virgin)

Best Actress-Drama
Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)
Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Naomi Watts (King Kong)
Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Alternate: Q'Orianka Kilcher (The New World)

Best Actress-Comedy or Musical
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)
Sarah Jessica Parker (The Family Stone)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Alternate: Claire Danes (Shopgirl)

Best Supporting Actor
Matthew Broderick (The Producers)
George Clooney (Syriana)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Geoffrey Rush (Munich)
Alternate: Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)

Best Supporting Actress
Scarlett Johansson (Match Point)
Diane Keaton (The Family Stone)
Gong Li (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Meryl Streep (Prime)
Uma Thurman (The Producers)
Alternate: Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)

Best Director
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck.)
Peter Jackson (King Kong)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Rob Marshall (Memoirs of a Geisha)
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Alternate: James Mangold (Walk the Line)