Unusually Crowded Actors' Races

I've always found the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress Oscar races more exciting. It's partly because I'm somewhat of an actressexual (a term introduced by Nathaniel of The Film Experience), but it's also because this race is often so competitive, with two or three slots open to surprise nominees up to nomination night. (Last year was an exception, with all five nominees in the lead actress race practically locks long before).

In an Oscar year that seems to be seeing an uncharacteristic dearth in competitive female performances, the male categories seem unusually, but pleasantly, crowded with so many possibilities. And while most of the significant female performances have already been seen (the few exceptions include Julia Roberts of Charlie Wilson's War, Halle Berry of Things We Lost in the Fire, and Giovanna Mezzogiorno of Love in the Time of Cholera), strong vehicles for male performances (the aforementioned three films, American Gangster, There Will Be Blood, Sweeney Todd, etc.) have yet to come out. The Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor races are shaping up to be the most exciting categories to watch for this year.

My current predicted nominees for the Best Actor race are Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood), Tom Hanks (Charlie Wilson's War), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah), James McAvoy (Atonement), and Denzel Washington (American Gangster). Of these, only McAvoy and Jones are, as of this moment, safe bets. The other three could be replaced by a whole mob of potential nominees. Joaquin Phoenix (Reservation Road) and John Cusack (Grace is Gone) have had their buzz diminished for different reasons (failure of the film for Phoenix, failure to sustain buzz for Cusack). George Clooney (Michael Clayton) is a definite contender, with his characteristic clout in Hollywood and a film that was generally well received. The buzz for Philip Seymour Hoffman's turn in The Savages has a lot of people excited about how it plays out when the film is released to wider audiences later in the year. Johnny Depp may yet shine in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, and Javier Bardem may capitalize on his astounding success with No Country for Old Men (for which he's almost sure to get a nod for the supporting category) and get more attention with Love in the Time of Cholera.

What makes this race so exciting, however, is the deluge of strong male performances from recent wide releases and Toronto hits. The acclaimed 3:10 to Yuma has lauded co-leads in Russell Crowe and Christian Bale. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, also a critics' favorite, has Brad Pitt and Casey Affleck, though the latter would likely be placed in the supporting category. The victory of Eastern Promises in Toronto ups the chances of Viggo Mortensen for a first nomination, though how much it does so is unclear. Sean Penn directs Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild to a possible first nom of his own. And before we can say, "Whoa, there's too many of them already," Before the Devil Knows You're Dead swoops in from outside the radar with Philip Seymour Hoffman and Ethan Hawke looking at awards consideration. Any of these could end up as nominees.

My predicted Best Supporting Actor nominees are currently Affleck, Bardem, Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood), Benicio del Toro (Things We Lost in the Fire), and Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton). I'm least confident about the nods for del Toro and Dano, though the Academy likes the former enough (for a nom and a win) and the latter could be propelled by a highly probably nomination for his co-star Day Lewis. Wilkinson's role is too juicy to ignore, as are Bardem's and Affleck's. Hoffman's turn in Charlie Wilson's War has big potential to make him a major contender at year's end. Ben Foster might be given a shot at a first nom with 3:10 to Yuma. Philip Bosco could sneak in by playing the ailing patriarch in The Savages. Maybe oft-ignored Mark Ruffalo could bypass his film's bad reviews even if Phoenix can't. People are all a-buzz about Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild even more than they are about Hirsch in that film. Former nominee Armin Mueller-Stahl could get in for Eastern Promises. Will people remember John Travolta's antics in the well received Hairspray? Alan Rickman could be a scene-stealer in Sweeney Todd, as could Dustin Hoffman in Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (he is Mr. Magorium, after all). And what about Hawke's co-lead performance in Devil (it can pit him here against co-star Albert Finney), and Crowe's own in American Gangster?

These are the types of races that make Oscar enthusiasts' hobby of predicting nominees so difficult and yet so fun and rewarding at the same time. Bring it on!

Up and Coming, For Your Consideration

86TH ACADEMY AWARDS

BEST PICTURE
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
The Bling Ring
Blue Jasmine
The Butler
Captain Phillips
The Counselor
Devil's Knot
The Fifth Estate
Foxcatcher
Fruitvale
Grace of Monaco
The Grandmasters
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
I'm So Excited
Inside Llewyn Davis
Labor Day
Lowlife
The Monuments Men
Nebraska
Oldboy
Only God Forgives
The Past
The Railway Man
Rush
Saving Mr. Banks
Serena
Twelve Years a Slave
Venus in Fur
The Way, Way Back
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
John Wells (August: Osage County)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Sofia Coppola (The Bling Ring)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Lee Daniels (The Butler)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Ridley Scott (The Counselor)
Atom Egoyan (Devil's Knot)
Bill Condon (The Fifth Estate)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale)
Olivier Dahan (Grace of Monaco)
Wong Kar Wai (The Grandmasters)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)
Pedro Almodovar (I'm So Excited)
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Jason Reitman (Labor Day)
James Gray (Lowlife)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Spike Lee (Oldboy)
Nicolas Winding Refn (Only God Forgives)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Jonathan Teplitzky (The Railway Man)
Ron Howard (Rush)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Susanne Bier (Serena)
Steve McQueen (Twelve Years a Slave)
Roman Polanski (Venus in Fur)
Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Way, Way Back)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Josh Brolin (Oldboy)
Daniel Bruhl (The Fifth Estate)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Asa Butterfield (Ender's Game)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Bradley Cooper (Serena)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Fifth Estate)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Benicio del Toro (Jimmy Picard)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Great Gatsby)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Twelve Years a Slave)
Michael Fassbender (The Counselor)
Colin Firth (Devil's Knot)
Colin Firth (The Railway Man)
Ryan Gosling (Only God Forgives)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Chris Hemsworth (Rush)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Tony Leung (The Grandmasters)
Matthew McConnaughey (Mud)
Joaquin Phoenix (Lowlife)
Forest Whitaker (The Butler)

BEST ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Cate Blanchett (The Monuments Men)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Marion Cotillard (Nightingale)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Dakota Fanning (Effie)
Charlotte Gainsbourg (Nymphomaniac)
Jennifer Hudson (Winnie)
Scarlett Johansson (Under the Skin)
Angelina Jolie (Maleficent)
Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
Nicole Kidman (Stoker)
Jennifer Lawrence (Serena)
Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby)
Emmanuelle Seigner (Venus in Fur)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Emma Watson (The Bling Ring)
Naomi Watts (Diana)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Reese Witherspoon (Devil's Knot)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mathieu Amalric (Venus in Fur)
Javier Bardem (The Counselor)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Star Trek into Darkness)
Joel Edgerton (The Great Gatsby)
Michael Fassbender (Twelve Years a Slave)
Harrison Ford (Ender's Game)
Jeremy Irvine (The Railway Man)
Ben Kingsley (Iron Man 3)
Brad Pitt (The Counselor)
Brad Pitt (Twelve Years a Slave)
Tahar Rahim (The Past)
Jeremy Renner (Lowlife)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jodie Foster (Elysium)
Catherine Keener (Captain Phillips)
Nicole Kidman (The Railway Man)
Julianne Moore (Carrie)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Zhang Ziyi (The Grandmasters)

Donsol, Philippine Entry to 80th Oscars

Donsol, directed by Adolfo Alix and starring Sid Lucero and Angel Aquino, will represent the Philippines in the Foreign Language Film category of the 80th Academy Awards. The Variety article is here. I personally didn't see this one coming (I was expecting Kubrador), but it's a pleasant surprise.

Other films that have submitted their entries: Austria (The Counterfieters), Belgium (Ben X), Canada (Days of Darkness), Finland (Man's Job), France (Persepolis), Germany (The Edge of Heaven), Japan (I Just Didn't Do It), Korea (Secret Sunshine), Norway (Gone with the Woman), and Singapore (881). The French and German entries are very strong contenders.

2007 Horror Two-fer

Later this year, two potentially great horror films will come out. The first is George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead. Yes, it's a new film from the master of zombie movies. What's interesting about it is that it goes back to the origins of the plague of living dead, with a group of teenage documentarists capturing the worst rampages of the undead on video. Sounds kinda like The Blair Witch Project, but with zombies and Romero's magic touch, I'm sure this film will be significantly different and well worth the time of any horror fan. The second is gallo master Dario Argento's La Terza Madre (Mother of Tears: The Third Mother), the third film in the trilogy started by Suspiria and continued with Inferno. Loved Suspiria, will be watching Inferno soon...can't wait for Third Mother. It has Asia Argento (the director's daughter), demons, witches, lots of blood (what Argento film goes without it?), and other extremely interesting stuff. Both films will be shown in the Toronto Film Festival. Someone give me a plane ticket to Toronto!!!