Even before I start discussing the other categories, I'm going to make significant changes in my Best Actress predictions. After more careful research and analysis of the contenders, I've decided that I've been an idiot for ignoring Julianne Moore and Felicity Huffman for too long. The Academy (as I do) loves Moore, having nominated her four times before (she would have won for either Far From Heaven, The Hours, or both in an ideal world). In The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio, she plays a mother of 10 and wife to a deadbeat. How does she support her family? By winning jingle-writing contests! Just imagine the emotional depth and range of that role (and I am NOT being sarcastic). If not an actual win, she's likely to get at least a nomination.
What about Huffman in Transamerica? The star of Desperate Housewives is playing the role of a transsexual just a few operations away from being a bonafide man before having to look for a rumored son. If that isn't Oscar-bait, I don't know what is. The role has already won her a Best Actress award at the Tribeca Film Festival, and she's an Emmy nominee this year for her hit show. If she wins the Emmy, expect her name to be called out as an Oscar nominee.
Charlize Theron and Joan Allen, who had previously occupied the slots now belonging to Moore and Huffman, still have a chance, but it will be tough for a former (and very recent) winner and an actress in a movie with a very early release date to displace the latter two. We'll see how this one plays out.