Thursday, March 02, 2017

89th Academy Awards: Prediction Scores and Thoughts

Well, that was a crazy ceremony. Too bad Warren Beatty's and Faye Dunaway's appearance as a tribute to Bonnie and Clyde was rather marred by the mistake of the Academy's long-time accountants (and the two legends' own befuddlement). Still, the big upset, Moonlight winning over the juggernaut that was La La Land, was just the shocker that an otherwise predictable night needed to end on. The winners were all deserving, as La La Land also would have been, but we live for the surprises (as much as we want our prediction scores to be high). Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards will be up soon, but in the meantime, here are the winners and my prediction scores. Those that I had predicted correctly have asterisks.

Predicted Winners:

PICTURE
MOONLIGHT

Predicted La La Land but had Moonlight as the potential spoiler. La La Land is a bigger technical achievement but I will not begrudge Moonlight, a wonderfully directed and acted film that has more emotional heft, this well deserve Oscar.

DIRECTING
DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)*

At least he won this one. If at least for the epicness of the film's razzle dazzle, he truly deserves it.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
CASEY AFFLECK (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)

Predicted Denzel Washington (Fences) but of course had Affleck at #2. None of the others really had a chance (which is sad for Viggo Mortensen, because he was the most deserving of the win IMO).

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
EMMA STONE (LA LA LAND)

Predicted Isabelle Huppert (Elle), which was rather too hopeful and naive in retrospect. Emma is one of those actresses who just has to wait for the right role but has had an Oscar win written in the stars for her early in her career. She was unstoppable. And was it just me, or was the applause for Isabelle during the ceremony rather lukewarm? Seems like the Academy members aren't as impressed by her resume and status in global cinema as we regular fans of film are.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
MAHERSHALA ALI (MOONLIGHT)*

Classy guy. Not my personal choice, but a worthy winner nonetheless.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
VIOLA DAVIS (FENCES)*

Slay! One of the world's greatest living actresses finally has an Oscar. And no, she was NOT in the wrong category. She may have had a long screentime but hers was clearly a supporting character to Denzel's. Dev Patel's Best Supporting Actor nomination was the only true case of category fraud this year.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Barry Jenkins, based on the play by Tarell Alvin McCraney (MOONLIGHT)*

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
kenneth Lonergan (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)

ANIMATED FEATURE
Byron Howard, Rich Moore (ZOOTOPIA)*

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SALESMAN (IRAN)

I had a strong feeling that The Salesman was going to win it after the shitstorm that Trump precipitated in the US, but I hesitated to predict against Toni Erdmann at the last moment.

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Linus Sandgren (LA LA LAND)*

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Coleen Atwood (FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM)

Is this the first Oscar win for any of the films in the Harry Potter universe?

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
John Gilbert (HACKSAW RIDGE)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson (SUICIDE SQUAD)

Suicide Squad now has one more Oscar than thousands of film classics. But what the heck, I can't say it didn't deserve it. Let the haters hate. I love this branch for not caring what the others think.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Justin Hurwitz (LA LA LAND)*

Samuel L. Jackson really hated the movie, huh? He couldn't even fake enthusiasm when reading Justin's name.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"City of Stars" (LA LA LAND)*

I still wish Ryan and Emma had performed this. John Legend's rendition was underwhelming.

ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
David Wasco (Production Design); Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (Set Decoration) (LA LA LAND)*

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Sylvain Bellemare (ARRIVAL)

Yey Arrival! Glad to have been wrong in this one. That film deserved many more Oscars.

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie and Peter Grace (HACKSAW RIDGE)

Kinda weird that the musical didn't win it, especially as it was such a behemoth coming in. But it's great that Kevin O'Connell is finally an Oscar winner after over 20 nominations.

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Dan Lemmon (THE JUNGLE BOOK)

I just now realized that I had predicted Rogue One instead of this. I don't even know why. Silly me. It was probably always between The Jungle Book and Doctor Strange. Or Kubo. This branch loves CG animals (explains the win for the otherwise shunned The Golden Compass).

TOTAL SCORE: 9/20. Terrible score, but I had fun predicting against the grain like with Huppert over Stone.

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